• See birdseye view posts #19 and #19A below for more on the following:

  • A tropical depression or tropical storm appears to be forming offshore of North Carolina, and is expected to move quickly northeast parallel to the northeast US and Atlantic Canada coasts. Be aware of the possibility of quickly-passing choppy seas, coastal sea swells, and rip currents in this region over the next 24 hours. 

  • For the broad tropical low pressure system spanning the eastern Pacific, southeastern Mexico, northwestern Central America, and the Bay of Campeche:

    • Heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential will be possible over El Salvador, Guatemala, and Belize, as well as the Mexican provinces of Chiapas, Tabasco, Oaxaca, eastern Veracruz, Yucatan, and Campeche through Wednesday.​

    • Confidence is increasing on a Saturday coastal storm surge and wind event anywhere from coastal southeastern Texas to Louisiana and Mississippi as the broad tropical low pressure is forecast to evolve into a tropical storm. Gather storm preparation supplies early to avoid last minute crowding, especially for those not yet vaccinated against the COVID-19 virus. Unvaccinated people who live in an area prone to coastal storm surge in this region should also come up with a plan to relocate to a hotel or family/friend residence further inland, as a public storm shelter may not be as ideal for controlling your exposure to COVID-19. 

    • Coastal sea swells may also occur this weekend in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (coastal Alabama and Florida panhandle) should this system's circulation become large enough in size.

  • As the author of, I have also been monitoring the progress of the worldwide outbreak of the COVID-19 virus. The COVID-19 page has not been updated over the last few months as site traffic has dropped after last year's Atlantic Hurricane Season. The COVID-19 page will be updated soon, in the meantime it will be up to us to control the pandemic by becoming vaccinated.


Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at