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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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  • Writer's pictureNCHurricane2009
    • Aug 7, 2023
    • 2 min read

MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #48

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...MONDAY AUGUST 7 2023 11:19 AM EDT...

The Atlantic tropics remain calm due to a large swath of dry Saharan Air. Over the next week... northward warm air transport ahead of strong frontal systems to emerge from North America will help amplify the current western Atlantic warm core upper ridge across the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic. In turn the expanding mid-latitude upper ridge will push the current string of suppressing upper vorticity around 25N latitude southward into the tropical latitudes of the Atlantic. Therefore any tropical waves of low pressure currently moving thorugh the supporting low shear and outflow of the current tropical upper ridge axis only have a short time to develop further... assuming any overcome the dry Saharan air... before the tropical upper ridge becomes replaced by the incoming suppressing upper vorticity by day 7.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Aug 7) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


0000Z (Aug 7) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


0600Z (Aug 7) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


0600Z (Aug 7) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)

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