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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...SATURDAY AUGUST 5 2023 5:45 AM EDT...

The Atlantic tropics remain calm as the latest eastern Atlantic tropical wave of low pressure is not at risk of developing at this time while ingesting dry air. See area of interest #19 section below for more information.

AREA OF INTEREST #19... The current eastern Atlantic tropical wave of low pressure has succumbed to the dry Saharan air layer lurking toward the north... while ingesting this dry air and losing its tropical low pressure spin and thunderstorms over the last 36 hours. Therefore I have cancelled this tropical wave as an area of interest for further development in this update.

****** outlook. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 6)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 13N-39W)

******National Hurricane Center ( official outlook as of 2 AM EDT*****************************

Not in the official outlook


Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (

1200Z (Aug 4) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #19... no development shown

1200Z (Aug 4) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #19... no development shown

1800Z (Aug 4) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #19... no development shown

1800Z (Aug 4) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #19... north end of tropical wave eventually develops into a tropical cyclone northeast of the Bahamas by 168 hours... near 25.5N-70W

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