*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SATURDAY AUGUST 5 2023 5:45 AM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics remain calm as the latest eastern Atlantic tropical wave of low pressure is not at risk of developing at this time while ingesting dry air. See area of interest #19 section below for more information.
AREA OF INTEREST #19... The current eastern Atlantic tropical wave of low pressure has succumbed to the dry Saharan air layer lurking toward the north... while ingesting this dry air and losing its tropical low pressure spin and thunderstorms over the last 36 hours. Therefore I have cancelled this tropical wave as an area of interest for further development in this update.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 6)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 13N-39W)
******National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 AM EDT*****************************
Not in the official outlook
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Aug 4) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #19... no development shown
1200Z (Aug 4) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #19... no development shown
1800Z (Aug 4) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #19... no development shown
1800Z (Aug 4) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #19... north end of tropical wave eventually develops into a tropical cyclone northeast of the Bahamas by 168 hours... near 25.5N-70W
Comments