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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #47

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...SUNDAY AUGUST 6 2023 12:31 PM EDT...

The Atlantic tropics remain calm due to a large swath of dry Saharan Air. To the southeast of the Saharan air… a tropical wave of low pressure has seen an increase in thunderstorms and rotation near 9N-32W. Additional thunderstorm activity associated with additional waves is also present over and just offshore of western Africa. The regional tropical upper ridge providing aiding low shear and upper outflow is forecast to persist over the next few days… therefore any tropical wave that shows persistent organization and walls off the dry air may be upgraded to an area of interest in future updates.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Aug 6) CMC Model Run...

**Large tropical low emerges from Western Africa at 120 hours and passes over the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 150 hours… center of the tropical low located at 15N-29W at 168 hours


0000Z (Aug 6) ECMWF Model Run...

**Large tropical low emerges from Western Africa at 120 hours and passes over the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 144 hours… center of the tropical low located at 14N-30W at 168 hours


0600Z (Aug 6) GFS Model Run...

**Tropical wave currently at 27W longitude develops into a southern Caribbean disturbance near 80W longitude by 168 hours


0600Z (Aug 6) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)

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