MY SPECIAL MESSAGES (MONDAY OCTOBER 13 2025 2:27 PM EDT)​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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• I previously expanded my pause on daily updates to the Atlantic tropics on this site as the hurricane season became unseasonably calm for mid-September. While tropical activity has remained elevated since late September, the potential for impact to land areas has dwindled as follows:​

  • The surface trough of low pressure that was over the Yucatan peninsula last week continued west across the Bay of Campeche, and was no longer a threat for development after making landfall in Veracruz early Thursday. 

  • The deep-layer cyclone northwest of the Azores acquired enough tropical characteristics to be designated Subtropical Storm Karen on Friday, which has since lost tropical characteristics and its identity this past weekend while continuing north into cooler waters and becoming absorbed into a developing north Atlantic frontal cyclone approaching from the west.

  • Tropical Storm Jerry brought impacts to the Lesser Antilles islands this past Thursday and Friday, mainly in the form of coastal surf and periods of heavy rainfall brought on by moisture that was sheared southward from the tropical storm as the storm center passed just to the north. Over the weekend while passing just east of Bermuda, Jerry lost its closed circulation due to a sprawling western Atlantic deep-layer low pressure system developing near the southeastern United States coast.

  • The sprawling western Atlantic deep-layer low pressure system near the southeastern United States coast has not gained tropical characteristics thus far. Will continue to monitor this feature as it continues northeast into the waters north of Bermuda, if its stays further south toward 40N latitude through day 5 it has a better chance of gaining tropical character. Regardless, this feature will be associated with swells reaching the shores of Bermuda, the Bahamas, and east coast of North America (United States and Atlantic Canada) in the days ahead.

  • An open ocean tropical wave of low pressure has become Tropical Storm Lorenzo today, the aforementioned western Altantic and north Atlantic cyclones will help keep Lorenzo away from land areas over the next several days.

  • Will soon be returning to daily updates on the Atlantic tropics on this site upon release of a special update package reviewing Atlantic tropical activity over the last several days, which will include forecasts on currently active systems at the time of its release. In the meantime refer to the National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) for up to the minute latest information on the currently active systems. 

• ​​​​As the author of infohurricanes.com, I have also been monitoring the progress of the worldwide progress of the COVID-19 virus. The COVID-19 page has not been updated over the last several months. The COVID-19 page will be updated with a final report on how the virus progressed over last few years.