MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #44

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...THURSDAY JULY 24 2025 9:30 PM EDT...

For the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic basin... the broad surface low pressure area in the northern Gulf of America appears to be becoming better organized over Louisiana and the waters offshore of Louisiana and southeast Texas... will watch for possible quick tropical cyclone formation here in the next 24 hours before this system makes landfall... see area of interest #11 section below for more information. In addition... a surface low pressure area could descend southwestward into the northern Gulf in approximately 6 days from now to become yet another tropical area of interest in this region... more details as follows:

(1) Through 30 hours the tail end of the surface cold front being generated by the eastern divergence zone of the current central Canada upper trough is driven southeast into the Carolinas by the surface ridge built in the western convergence zone of the upper trough... and through 54 hours is shown to fester over the Carolinas perhaps with the aid of upper anticyclonic outflow induced by the ongoing southeastern US upper ridge.

(2) Between 54 and 78 hours a shortwave upper trough and its associated surface front ejects east from the Great Lakes region into the northeastern US... with the tail end of that front merging with the persistent Carolinas surface low pressure area as that front is also pushed southeast by the surface ridge induced by the back convergent side of the shortwave upper trough. At the same time a piece of energy left behind by the current northwest Atlantic upper trough is shown to revolve around the southeastern US upper ridge... reaching the northern Gulf as an inverted upper trough whose eastern convergence zone builds a US Gulf coast surface ridge.

(3) From 78 to 144 hours the Carolinas surface low pressure area is coaxed southwest into the northern Gulf under the force of the US Gulf coast surface ridge... then a more sprawling and strong surface ridge descending from the US/Canada border induced by the back convergence zone of the next major upper trough to pass over Canada.

(4) This next northern Gulf surface low may then try to take advantage of outflow induced by the ongoing southeastern US upper ridge... however the upper vorticity currently near the northeastern Caribbean Islands is also scheduled to reach the Gulf as an inverted upper trough also around 144 hours. Tropical development potential will hinge on the exact positions of the surface low and the inverted upper trough... today the models have shifted toward a slower arrival of the disruptive inverted upper trough which would help tropical development potential... however at the same time the models have trended northward with the surface low pressure's track which increases its contact with the southeastern United States which goes against tropical development. Therefore not declaring a new tropical area of interest for this scenario during this update cycle.

For the tropical latitudes of the Atlantic basin... tropical development in the waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to be suppressed by surges of dry Saharan air. Moreover upper winds in a swath of the eastern tropical Atlantic will become less favorable for development within the next few days as suppressing upper vorticity currently in the vicinity of the Canary Islands rolls southwest into the area while pushed around the merger between the current northeast Atlantic upper ridge cell and eastern tropical Atlantic upper ridge cell. Further west in the Caribbean Sea... upper winds have made a recovery (as far as supporting thunderstorms) in the south-central Caribbean where anticyclonic outflow has increased due to the weakening and westward departure of the upper vortex that was over Cuba... this outflow has allowed for periods of thunderstorms in the vicinity of the east coast of Nicaragua. In the short-term... the area of favorable south-central Caribbean upper winds will become squashed out as the current Atlantic upper vorticity is forced southwest into the Caribbean due to the strength of the ongoing southeastern US upper ridge. In the longer term... toward days 5 to 7... the upper vorticity begins to weaken from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air which may give an opening for upper winds to become favorable for development in the Caribbean. For instance noting this past 1800Z GFS model run develops the northern apex of the current surface tropical wave of low pressure at 35W longitude... when that feature later reaches the vicinity of the northern Caribbean Islands.

AREA OF INTEREST #11... The broad surface low pressure area that was in the eastern Gulf of America has continued west into the north-central Gulf... and as of 1800Z the centroid of the broad low was placed on the southeast Louisiana coast in the NHC TAFB surface analysis. Visible satellite animation of the low-level clouds before sunset suggested the broad low is elongated southwest to northeast... stretching from the southeastern United States to the northwestern Gulf. Over the last 24 hours the thunderstorm pattern has improved in organization... with the once separate areas of scattered thunderstorms west and east of the central area merging. Since sunset the thunderstorm activity in the southwestern part of the broad low pressure circulation has markedly increased in size and organization... covering much of Louisiana and the waters south... with this activity also already expanding west toward southeast Texas. In the upper-levels... the remains of the upper vortex that was over Cuba is approaching from the east as an inverted upper trough... with the growing area of organized thunderstorms thriving under the anticyclonic outflow west of the upper trough and extending from the ongoing southeastern US warm core upper ridge. The latent heat release of the thunderstorms is likely to re-enforce the warm core anticyclonic outflow which will in turn promote lowering surface pressures. Therefore my updated forecast track has the low pressure center currently upon the southeast Louisiana coast re-generating west-southwest into the thunderstorms over the next 24 hours... and I have also increased my peak odds of tropical cyclone formation to 30% in this update cycle. The west component of the track during this time will also be aided by the steering surface ridge currently positioned over the northeast US coast... especially as the ridge is re-enforced by the western convergence zone of the upper trough now ejecting from central Canada. By Saturday this system should turn north into eastern Texas while finishing its center reformation and rounding the west extent of the steering ridge.

Regarding impact to land areas... the current area of heavy rainfall (with flash flood potential) covering much of Louisiana is likely to shift with the forecast track... eventually reaching eastern Texas... Arkansas... and southeastern Oklahoma through Saturday. Gusty winds and coastal surf may be another hazard that develops for southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas should quick tropical cyclone formation occur in the next 24 hours.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 26)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of the southeast corner of Texas near 29N-94.2W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 27)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern Texas near 32.5N-95W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT***********************

Formation chance through 48 hours... 10%

Formation chance through 7 days... 10%

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

1200Z (Jul 24) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #11... current broad north-central Gulf of America low turns northwest into the Texas/Louisiana border region through 30 hours... shortly thereafter continues north further inland and dissipates

1200Z (Jul 24) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #11... current broad north-central Gulf of America low turns northwest into the Texas/Louisiana border region through 30 hours... shortly thereafter continues north further inland and dissipates

1800Z (Jul 24) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #11... current broad north-central Gulf of America low turns northwest into the Texas/Louisiana border region through 33 hours... shortly thereafter continues north further inland and dissipates

**Tropical wave currently at 35W longitude proceeds west across the Lesser Antilles and enters the eastern Caribbean by 93 hours... north apex of tropical wave proceeds to develop into a very compact tropical low making landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic at 120 hours... the tropical low degenerates into a surface trough due to the landfall and reaches the waters between Haiti... the southeast Bahamas... and east tip of Cuba by 138 hours... the surface trough re-develops into a small tropical low between central Cuba and the central Bahamas by 150 hours... proceeds to develop into a compact tropical cyclone while moving west-northwest into the waters between the western Bahamas and Cuba through 168 hours

1200Z (Jul 24) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #11... current broad north-central Gulf of America low turns northwest into the Texas/Louisiana border region through 36 hours... shortly thereafter continues north further inland and dissipates