MY SPECIAL MESSAGES (THURSDAY OCTOBER 1 2020 12:48 PM EDT)
See birdseye view post #136 below for more on the following:
Interests in Honduras, western Cuba, Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico including the Yucatan peninsula, northern Chiapas, and Tabasco should monitor the progress of a tail end of a cold front moving into the region from the northwest, which will likely merge with the organizing tropical wave of low pressure incoming from the east such that an organized tropical disturbance is expected to emerge with the support of favorable upper-level winds that will keep surface pressures low. The disturbance that emerges is expected to be slow-moving, potentially resulting in long periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, with gusty winds increasingly likely on coastal areas as there is a higher chance of a tropical storm forming from this disturbance. The location of the heaviest rainfall and gusty winds will depend on the storm track, with a more southern track affecting Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, northern Chiapas, and Tabasco, and a more northern track affecting the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba.
The Lesser Antilles will experience heavy rainfall from an active tropical wave of low pressure incoming from the east over the next 24 hours, however tropical cyclone formation is not expected due to unfavorable shearing upper-level winds. In 3 to 5 days, this tropical wave will reach more favorable upper-level winds featuring divergence and low shear such that some development is possible, with this tropical wave potentially affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands depending on the exact track it takes.
As the author of infohurricanes.com, I have also been monitoring the progress of the worldwide outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, see COVID-19 page in the above site menu for details. For the United States, see included message at the top of the COVID-19 page that explains the severity of the virus and how it could cause a catastrophic amount of fatalities, much more than the common flu, if large amounts of citizens continue to not perform best practices to stop the spread of the virus such as wearing a mask in public. Please spread this message to as many people as possible!
BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS
Since 2012 on the Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com) blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments via Disqus on Weather Underground at www.wunderground.com/cat6. You can see my Disqus feed at this link for my latest comments. Feel free to reply to me with your disqus account or e-mail at