*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...UPDATE...MONDAY JULY 1 2024 1:00 AM EDT...
Tropical depression three centered offshore of central and northern Veracruz in the Bay of Campeche was upgraded to Tropical Storm Chris with 40 mph maximum sustained winds as of 11 PM EDT. I have also added updated outlook forecast points and infrared satellite imagery sequence for the tropical wave of low pressure east of Hurricane Beryl... this system that has been tagged area of interest #10 on this site as it remains the tenth tropical Atlantic area of interest tracked on this site this year.
...SUNDAY JUNE 30 2024 7:02 PM EDT...
The following are special updates on Hurricane Beryl and current Atlantic tropical disturbances... to cover changes that have ocurred since full post #29 from earlier today (address to previous full post is https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-29)
MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL... Satellite image of intense Hurricane Beryl taken at 2050Z:
Life-threatening situation unfolding for the southern Lesser Antilles as Beryl continues to far exceed expectations regarding its intensification rate. After Beryl vaulted to a category 4 intensity of 130 mph maximum sustained winds and 960 mb surface pressure through Sunday morning... the only relief we've had is that Beryl has ceased intensifying for now while still holding the same pressure and wind combo from 2 PM to 5 PM EDT. Forecast track is steady to the west-northwest across the southern Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea through day 5 while Beryl rounds the southwest quadrant of the steering Atlantic surface ridge. Noting that frontal systems that will cross North America during the 5-day forecast period are expected to be too far north to influence Beryl with their ridge weaknesses... instead the respective surface ridges that build behind the fronts (under the back convergence zone of the associated upper troughs) end up shifting east and adding to the west side of the steering Atlantic surface ridge. Regarding intensity... waters along the hurricane's forecast path are favorably warm and it seems there is not much in the atmosphere that will hold back Beryl as the overhead upper ridging providing low shear and outflow has expanded into the eastern Caribbean in the wake of decaying central Atlantic upper vorticity. Although the current cold core eastern Canada upper trough will be adding an injection of cold air to the western Atlantic upper vorticity... it is not enough to prevent subsequent decay of that vorticity through day 5 as the vorticity will then largely remain isolated from high-latitude cold air while pinned by the southeast side of the ongoing hot air mass upper ridge over the southern US. By the time Beryl moves into the western Caribbean by days 4 and 5... the decaying western Atlantic upper vorticity will have decayed into one vortex retrograding west around the southern US upper ridge into the Gulf of Mexico and then Mexico... and another vortex northeast of the Bahamas... with Beryl still under rather favorable upper ridging (low shear/outflow) in between the vortices. With such a favorable atmospheric outlook for Beryl... my intensity forecast primarily focuses on trying to anticipate structural changes in Beryl that will cause associated intensity fluctuations. As such in the next 24 hours I forecast Beryl could be knocking on the door of category 5 while crossing the southern Lesser Antilles... then I anticipate through 48 hours a possible eye wall replacement cycle that causes a flucuation back down into the middle of the category 4 range. By 72 hours I forecast Beryl to then make a run into category 5 status when the eye wall replacement cycle finishes. Beyond 72 hours it is hard to guess what the eye structure will be like (how many more eye wall replacement cycles will occur... etc)... and we want to be sure that the forecast regarding the decay of the western Atlatnic upper vorticity remains the same before calling for Beryl to stay category 5 through day 5. So for now choose to park Beryl in the middle of the category 4 range from 72 to 120 hours.
For the southern Lesser Antilles... Beryl will be impacting the islands tomorrow. This is a life threatening situation for Tobago... Barbados... Grenada... St Vincent... and the Grenadines where the intense hurricane core is likely to pass through... also note that land areas adjacent to these islands will see less severe but still vigorous heavy rain... gusty winds... and coastal surf. Interests in the southern Lesser Antilles should be rushing preparations to completion through tonight. Northeastern Venezuela will also likely see an increase in coastal surf by tomorrow... with surf propagating further west along the remainder of the Venezuela coast... the ABC Islands (Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao)... and the south coast of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) thru mid-week. Interests across Jamaica... the Cayman Islands... Belize... and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl for Thursday through weekend impacts as long-range forecast tracks are susceptible to changes... as such it is uncertain exactly how close Beryl will get to each of these areas. However at a minimum coastal surf is on the table... with surf reaching as far south as coastal northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras.
Not long after Beryl charges through the southern Lesser Antilles islands... another vigorous tropical wave of low pressure following behind has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Expect another round of inclement weather or tropical cyclone impacts for the islands by mid-week... see area of interest #10 section below for more information.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1800Z Jun 30)... 130 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered at 10.9N-55.6W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 1)... 155 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered just west of the southern Lesser Antilles at 12N-62W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 2)... 150 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered in the eastern Caribbean Sea at 14.2N-69W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 3)... 165 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered southeast of Jamaica at 15.2N-75W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 4)... 150 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered southwest of Jamaica and south of the Cayman Islands at 16.2N-80W
IOH 120 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 5)... 150 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered east-southeast of the Belize/Mexico border at 17.5N-85.5W
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 5 PM EDT****************************
Peak Strength (0600Z Jul 1)... 145 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered south-southeast of Barbados and east-northeast of Tobago at 11.7N-59.1W
5-Day Position (1800Z Jul 5)... 70 mph maximum sustaeind wind tropical storm centered over the northwest corner of the Yucatan peninsula at 20.3N-89.9W
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE... Satellite image of newly-formed tropical depression three taken at 2240Z:
As of 5 PM EDT… the tropical low pressure spin that has been traversing west across the Bay of Campeche has intensified into the third tropical depression of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This has been allowed to occur as the neighboring suppressing upper vortex to the west is dissipating… allowing for symmetric thunderstorm bands to expand in all quadrants of the circulation. Given the amount of thunderstorm activity in the circulation… I have my peak intensity forecast for the Veracruz landfall just a touch higher than the 5 PM NHC forecast.
Any heavy rainfall this system produces across southeastern Mexico... east-central Mexico… and interior central Mexico could be detrimental and cause flooding hazards... as grounds here are already saturated from the passage of previous tropical systems. Central and northern Veracruz could see gusty winds and coastal surf tonight.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1800Z Jun 30)... 35 mph maximum sustained wind tropical depression centered in the western Bay of Campeche at 19.7N-94.9W
IOH 12 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 1)... 45 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered on the coast of Veracruz at 20.2N-97W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 1)... Dissipating tropical low over inland east-central Mexico centered at 20.2N-99W
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 5 PM EDT**************************
Landfall (0600Z Jul 1)... 40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered on the coast of Veracruz at 20N-96.6W
Loss of Tropical Cyclone Status (1800Z Jul 1)... 25 mph maximum sustained wind dissipating tropical low over inland east-central Mexico centered at 20.2N-99.4W
AREA OF INTEREST #10… Series of infrared satellite images showing the progress of the complex tropical wave of low pressure east of Hurricane Beryl which has featured multiple centers... note for each image a center of rotation is marked with black crosshairs... two centers as of 0620Z June 30... three centers as of 1800Z June 30 with the middle becoming the dominant... the one main dominant center remaining as of 0220Z July 1:
The complex tropical wave of low pressure trailing behind Hurricane Beryl last evening was characterized by an eastern and western spin early this morning. Throughout the remainder of the morning and afternoon an additional third spin… located in the middle of the two prior spins… has become the dominant with an ever-increasing area of curved thunderstorm bands. Therefore the potential for tropical cyclone formation is increasing and I now agree with greater than 50% odds of tropical cyclone formation. I will have more information on this in another special update this evening. Main concern for this area of interest is impacts to the southern Lesser Antilles by mid-week… not long after intense hurricane Beryl strikes the islands.
Update as of 1 AM EDT... the above infrared satellite imagery sequence and below updated outlook forecast points have been added. Also noting the NHC outlook on this system remained the same at 8 PM EDT... with the NHC forecasting a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 2)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 8N-43.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 3)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 9N-49.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 4)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just east of Trinidad and Tobago near 10.5N-59W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 5)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just east of the ABC Islands and offshore of northern Venezuela near 12N-67W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 6)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of the Guajira peninsula of Colombia near 13.5N-72.5W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 PM EDT**************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 40%
Formation chance through 7 days... 70%
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