*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...UPDATE...SUNDAY JUNE 30 2024 12:41 PM EDT...
Noting this post was intended for release at 4:30 AM... however it appears this post remained in the draft stage rather than being on public display (the same situation happened with the bulletins at the top of the home page which are being updated now). Noting in the eight hours since 4:30 AM... Beryl has explosively intensified from a category 1 to 4 hurricane with 130 mph maximum sustained winds and the pair of areas of interest discussed in this post have each become better organized with a further increase in curved thunderstorm bands. As a result of all of these rapid changes... I will be working to assemble a special update as soon as I can. Visit the official NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for up to the minute latest information on Beryl and the other areas of interest.
...SUNDAY JUNE 30 2024 4:30 AM EDT...
Atlantic tropical activity continues to escalate as Beryl has rapidly intensified into a hurricane in the central tropical Atlantic. There are also two additional areas of interest... one to the east of Beryl and another heading into the Bay of Campeche:
(1) See Beryl section below for more information on the hurricane... including information on impacts expected for the southern Lesser Antilles... north coast of Venezuela... Aruba... Bonaire... Curacao... Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic)... Jamaica... the Cayman Islands... and coastal northeast Nicaragua and Honduras.
(1) See area of interest #8 section below for information on the tropical wave entering the Bay of Campeche
(2) See area of interest #10 section below for an update on the tropical wave of low pressure trailing behind Beryl to the east.
HURRICANE BERYL... Serious situation unfolding for the southern Lesser Antilles as Beryl continues to exceed expectations regarding its organization and intensification rate. As of the most recent 2 AM EDT NHC advisory an eye feature is popping up on infrared satellite pictures and Beryl is now a high-end category 1 hurricane with 90 mph maximum sustained winds after being only a minimal tropical storm 24 hours ago. Forecast track is steady to the west-northwest across the southern Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea through day 5 while Beryl rounds the southwest quadrant of the steering Atlantic surface ridge... and once again I have increased the forward speed of the storm based on the storm's current position relative to the previous forecast. Noting the longer-range forecast track has shifted south as the mechanisms that could bend Beryl more sharply north are all falling apart or forecast to fall apart... for instance the tail of central Atlantic upper vorticity currently over the northern Lesser Antilles is dissipating... and for the longer range models now show less western Atlantic upper vorticity that is now not enough to bend the hurricane north. At the surface... frontal systems that will cross North America during the 5-day forecast period are expected to be too far north to influence Beryl with their ridge weaknesses... instead the respective surface ridges that build behind the fronts (under the back convergence zone of the associated upper troughs) end up shifting east and add to the west side of the steering Atlantic surface ridge. Regarding intensity... the fact the all the upper vorticity in the path of Beryl will be receding as discussed above now means the hurricane remains under upper ridging (low shear and upper outflow) through the entire 5-day forecast period... and coupled with warm waters nothing would impede Beryl's intensity except for the storm's structure. The structure is already improving a little faster than I thought during my 11:16 PM EDT update earlier this evening (in prevous post #28) as an eye feature is already developing on infrared satellite... so now I forecast Beryl to be a category 4 hurricane by 24 hours. I then pause intensification between 24 and 48 hours while predicting a high likelihood of an eye wall replacement cycle... then show Beryl roll across the Caribbean as an even stronger category 4 after recovery from the eye wall replacement. If current trends continue... it appears Beryl could end up being an intense July Caribbean Cruiser... similar to what we saw with Dennis and Emily in 2005.
For the southern Lesser Antilles... Beryl will be impacting the islands on Monday. This is becoming a potential life threatening situation for Tobago... Barbados... Grenada... St Vincent... and the Grenadines where the hurricane core is likely to pass through... also note that land areas adjacent to these islands will see less severe but still vigorous heavy rain... gusty winds... and coastal surf. Interests in the southern Lesser Antilles should be rushing preparations to completion by tomorrow evening. Northeastern Venezuela will also likely see an increase in coastal surf by Monday... with surf propagating further west along the remainder of the Venezuela coast... the ABC Islands (Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao)... and the south coast of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) thru mid-week. Interests across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Beryl for Thursday/Friday impacts as long-range forecast tracks are susceptible to changes... as such it is uncertain exactly how close Beryl will get. However at a minimum coastal surf is on the table... with surf reaching as far southwest as coastal northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras.
Not long after Beryl charges through the southern Lesser Antilles islands... another vigorous tropical wave of low pressure following behind could produce another round of inclement weather across the islands by mid-week... see area of interest #10 section below for more information.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0600Z Jun 30)... 90 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered at 10.5N-52.2W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 1)... 130 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered just east-northeast of Tobago at 11.2N-58W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 2)... 130 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered in the southeastern Caribbean Sea at 12.8N-65.5W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 3)... 150 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered in the central Caribbean Sea at 14.8N-71.5W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 4)... 150 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered south of Jamaica at 16N-77.5W
IOH 120 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 5)... 150 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered midway between the Cayman Islands and Honduras at 17N-82.5W
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 PM EDT****************************
Peak Strength (1200Z Jul 1)... 125 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered southwest of Barbados at 12.3N-60.4W
5-Day Position (0000Z Jul 4)... 85 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the western Caribbean Sea at 18.5N-85W
AREA OF INTEREST #8... The tropical wave of low pressure crossing the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico has remained well-organized while having a well-defined spin that has been marching across the southern part of the peninsula. The spin is now entering the eastern Bay of Campeche from the southwest Yucatan peninsula coast... and plenty of surface ridging remains in place to the north to push this system across the Bay and into Veracruz over the next 36 hours (the surface ridging is supported by convergence on the back side of the current central Canada upper trough plus convergence on the south side of the current southern US upper ridge). Although thunderstorm activity has been limited on the northwest side of the circulation due to outflow suppression induced by the nearby upper vortex to the west... the vortex is forecast to dissipate in the next 24 hours from its ongoing isolation from high-latitude cold air. In fact the upper vortex already appears to be losing its grip on this system as the most recent satellite frames are also showing thunderstorms bubbling up just west of the spin center... therefore in this update cycle I have increased my odds of tropical cyclone formation to 60%.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... any heavy rainfall this wave produces across Guatemala... southeastern Mexico... and east-central Mexico could be detrimental and cause flooding hazards... as grounds here are already saturated from the passage of previous tropical systems. Noting Veracruz also has a higher chance now to receive gusty winds and costal surf by 36 hours.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 1)... 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Bay of Campeche near 19.8N-95W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 2)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland eastern Mexico near 20N-98.5W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 AM EDT**************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 50%
Formation chance through 7 days... 50%
AREA OF INTEREST #10... A pair of tropical waves of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic have become increasingly defined by curved thunderstorm bands... with one western area of spin suggested near 6.5N-35W and an eastern area of spin near 8N-27.5W. It is the western of the two waves I have been using to define this area of interest... however the NHC TAFB surface analysis is handling the wave pair as a single wave axis near 30W longitude. Because the most recent satellite frames show the western of the two spins is the dominant... I will continue to use it as the initial position of this area of interest. This system will continue west and then west-northwest while rounding the south and then southwest side of the same Atlantic surface ridge that is also steering Beryl. I do agree with increasing odds of tropical cyclone formation as the thunderstorm activity has been slowly organizing into curved bands... however my peak odds of tropical cyclone formation are not above 50% in this update for the following reasons:
(1) This system could lose organization if it begins merging with the neighboring wave to the east.
(2) Not all global models develop this system (only the CMC and GFS are consistent with showing development)
(3) Due to the recession of upper vorticity features as discussed in the above Hurricane Beryl section... the regional tropical upper ridge expands north during the forecast period. This will shift the upper ridge axis to the north of this system... resulting in potentially disruptive easterly shear on the south side of the upper ridge.
Even if tropical cyclone formation does not occur... this wave could produce another round of inclement weather across the southern Lesser Antilles islands by the middle of this upcoming week... not long after Beryl makes its strike on the islands. As such interests here should also continue to monitor this wave's progress in case tropical cyclone formation indeed ends up occuring. Because of the far south initial position of the wave... it could also bring vigorous weather into Trinidad and northern Venezuela towards the latter part of the 5-day forecast period.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 1)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 7N-41W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 2)... 15% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 8N-46W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 3)... 25% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 9N-52W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 4)... 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just east of Trinidad near 10N-60W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 5)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean Sea just offshore of the northern Venezuela coast near 11.5N-66.5W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 AM EDT**************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 40%
Formation chance through 7 days... 70%
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Jun 29) CMC Model Run...
**For Hurricane Beryl... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 48 hours...subsequently curves more north in track while beginning to shrink in size and weakening with center passing just south of Haiti through 90 hours... the compact and weak tropical cyclone then curves more west in track which takes it across the north coast of Jamaica through 102 hours and Cayman Islands through 114 hours... makes landfall over the northeastern Yucatan peninsula as a small remnant low at 132 hours... remnant low continues west-northwest across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and toward southern Tamaulipas through 168 hours
**For area of interest #8... without tropical cyclone formation the tropical low makes landfall over central Veracruz at 42 hours... inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #10... rapid compact tropical cyclone formation shown near 10N-39W at 48 hours... compact tropical cyclone moves into the southern Lesser Antilles by 102 hours... as a potentially intense compact tropical cyclone the center passes just offshore of the south Jamaica coast through 162 hours
1200Z (Jun 29) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Hurricane Beryl... passes through the southern Lesser Antilles at 48 hours with the center then passing just offshore of the south Jamaica coast by 108 hours... the hurricane then passes just south of the Cayman Islands through 120 hours and makes landfall just north of the Belize/Mexico border at 150 hours... makes it to the northwest corner of the Yucatan by 162 hours as a weakened tropical storm
**For area of interest #8... without tropical cyclone formation makes landfall over northern Veracruz by 42 hours with inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #10... develops into a tropical low near 11N-46.5W at 72 hours... the tropical low weakens back to a wave while it crosses the southern Lesser Antilles by 108 hours
0000Z (Jun 30) GFS Model Run...
**For Hurricane Beryl... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 39 hours and then passes just south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic by 72 hours... center then passes just offshore of the south Jamaica coast at 93 hours with the hurricane then passing just south of the Cayman Islands by 105 hours... the hurricane then makes landfall over the northeastern Yucatan peninsula at 132 hours and emerges onto the northwest coast of the Yucatan at 144 hours... the hurricane then continues northwest across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through 168 hours
**For area of interest #8... makes landfall over southern Veracruz at 27 hours without tropical cyclone formation beforehand... inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #10... tropical cyclone formation suggested near 10N-41.5W at 48 hours... passes over the southern Lesser Antilles by 96 hours as a compact and potentially intense tropical cyclone... the compact tropical cyclone then curves north into the south coast of the Dominican Republic by 147 hours which causes it to weaken to a tiny tropical storm... the small tropical storm proceeds north-northwest into the easternmost Bahamas through 168 hours
1800Z (Jun 29) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For Hurricane Beryl... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 36 hours with center of hurricane passing just offshore of the south Jamaica coast through 90 hours and then just south of the Cayman Islands by 108 hours... makes landfall on the northeastern corner of the Yucatan peninsula by 132 hours and proceeds northwest across the western Gulf of Mexico and toward the Texas coast through 168 hours as a large and intense hurricane.
**For area of interest #8... tropical cyclone formation shown just before landfall with northern Veracruz at 36 hours... inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
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