*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...UPDATE...THURSDAY NOVEMBER 2 2023 8:45 PM EDT...
The birdseye view chart below has been updated to include the surface and upper air analysis for 1200Z November 2 which were effective at the time the forecasts and discussions below were created.
...THURSDAY NOVEMBER 2 2023 3:24 PM EDT...
Note the usual surface and upper air analysis are not included in the above chart to ensure a more timely release of this update... those parts of the chart will be added within the next several hours.
The Atlantic tropics continue to start off slow in November as the only area of interest in the Atlantic basin... a broad low pressure area in the central Caribbean... is running out of time to develop before it makes landfall with Central America. See area of interest #51 section below for more information.
AREA OF INTEREST #51... A broad surface low pressure system in the central Caribbean Sea... which materialized from a merger of two pre-existing low pressures... as of 1800Z today was centered south-southwest of Jamaica near 15N-78.5W based on the organization of its outer thunderstorm squalls. Deep-layer east-northeasterly flow on the south side of the current eastern US surface ridge and current Caribbean upper ridge cell should move this system west-southwest into Central America by 48 hours. Because this system still does not show signs of developing a well-defined center of spin in satellite animation... and because this system is southwest of my previous forecast track... I assess time is running out for this system to become a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall in Central America and haved dropped my odds of tropical cyclone formation to 0%. After landfall the Caribbean upper ridge cell with its favorable low shear/upper outflow environment is forecast to shift southward over this system due to the push of a series of upper troughs to pass over North America... and it is conceivable in the long range the broad system tries to develop over adjacent western Caribbean or far eastern Pacific waters. Given the southwest shift of my updated forecast track... I assess it is now more likely that far eastern Pacific development would be possible instead of the Caribbean. Thus I have cancelled my long-term outlooks on this system as this site is focused on Atlantic basin tropical activity (Caribbean... Gulf of Mexico... North Atlantic).
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... periods of heavy rainfall are likely to increase across Central America (Belize... Guatemala... El Salvador... Honduras... Nicaragua... Costa Rica... and Panama) within the next few days. This is my planned final statement on this area of interest on this blog... unless it continues to be mentioned in the NHC outlook by the time of my next update.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Nov 3)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of northeastern Nicaragua near 14N-81W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 PM EDT***************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 20%
Formation chance through 7 days... 20%
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields(http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Nov 2) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #51... no development shown
0000Z (Nov 2) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #51... no development shown
1200Z (Nov 2) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #51... no development shown
1200Z (Nov 2) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #51... no development shown