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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #130

Updated: Nov 26, 2023

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


…UPDATE… SUNDAY NOVEMBER 26 2023 6:53 PM EDT…

Satellite image of eastern Atlantic surface low as of 2000Z which recently passed northeastward across the Azores:


The center of the eastern Atlantic surface low that was being monitored for signs of acquiring tropical characteristics has moved northeastward across the Azores. The thunderstorm activity has become more removed from the center while ingesting cooler drier air associated with the upper trough in the region and acquisition of tropical characteristics going forward is not possible. Coastal surf and gusty winds generated by this system across the Azores will decrease over the next day or so as the system continues northeast and away. No additional tropical areas of interest are expected to emerge in the Atlantic basin before the official end of hurricane season on November 30. As such this is my final regularly scheduled post… will resume daily posts at the start of the next hurricane season in June 2024… or unless the potential for tropical development returns to the Atlantic basin before then.


...SATURDAY NOVEMBER 25 2023 12:42 PM EDT...

The surface low in the central tropical Atlantic that has been monitored for signs of acquiring tropical characteristics has continued east-northeast into the eastern Atlantic... and over the next 24 hours will accelerate northeastward into the Azores while most likely not becoming a subtropical cyclone. See area of interest #54 section below for more information


AREA OF INTEREST #54... The central Atlantic surface low that has been monitored for signs of acquiring tropical characteristics... and its cut-off upper trough has moved east-northeast into the eastern Atlantic. The cut-off upper trough has recently merged with an upstream northwestern Atlantic upper trough... with the combined trough soon merging with the current eastern Canada upper trough. The combined trough is taking a northwest-southeast tilt due to the initial position of the elements in the merger... and this tilt direction will promote a northeastward track of the surface low across the eastern Atlantic and into the Azores. The divergence zone of the combined upper trough is more elongated than the initial divergence zone that was provided by the prior central Atlantic cut-off upper trough... which has resulted in the surface low also becoming elongated featuring multiple cloud swirls on visible satellite imagery. The initial position of the surface low as of 1200Z was near 31N-34W... in the central region of the multiple cloud swirls. Despite the divergence zone of the combined upper trough aiding in thunderstorm generation in the east half of this system... it will not likely have a well-defined center needed for cyclone status going forward and I have lowered my odds of subtropical cyclone formation to 0%. The initial position and model guidance are east of my previous forecast track and my updated one is adjusted in that direction. This will be my planned final statement on this area of interest unless it continues to be mentioend in the NHC outlook at the time of my next update.


Scattered showers have developed across the Azores in advance of this system. Rainfall... gusty winds... and coastal surf generated by this system will increase across the Azores over the next 24 hours.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 26)... 0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (vicinity of western Azores near 38.8N-31W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 7 AM EDT***************************

Formation chance through 48 hours... 10%

Formation chance through 7 days... 10%


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields(http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Nov 25) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #54... center of elongated surface low moves across the western Azores through 42 hours while transitioning into an elongated non-tropical frontal low... frontal low then turns increasingly eastward and makes landfall over northwestern Spain at 108 hours and shortly thereafter is absorbed by frontal low to the north over the British Isles


0000Z (Nov 25) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #54... center of elongated surface low moves across the western Azores through 36 hours while transitioning into a non-tropical frontal low... frontal low then turns increasingly eastward while becoming increasingly elongated east-west and moves across northern Spain coast through 102 hours... shortly thereafter is absorbed by frontal cyclone to the north over the British Isles


0600Z (Nov 25) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #54... center of elongated surface low moves across the western Azores through 27 hours while transitioning into a non-tropical frontal cyclone... frontal cyclone then turns increasingly eastward while weakening and makes landfall on northwestern Spain at 108 hours... shortly thereafter is absorbed by frontal cyclone to the north over the British Isles


0600Z (Nov 25) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #54... center of elongated surface low moves across the western and central Azores through 36 hours while transitioning into a non-tropical frontal low... frontal low then turns increasingly eastward and makes landfall over the northwestern Iberia peninsula (Spain and Portugal) at 102 hours... shortly thereafter is absorbed by frontal low to the north over the British Isles

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