*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY MAY 12 2022 4:20 PM EDT...
The deep-layered low pressure located just offshore of the Carolina coast is showing no signs of tropical development... see area of interest #1 section below for more details. This is my final blog post until the official start of the hurricane season on June 1st...unless the potential for tropical development returns to the Atlantic basin before then.
AREA OF INTEREST #1...The deep-layered low pressure system that has been offshore of the eastern US coast continues to consist of an upper vortex parked over a decaying surface low. The well-defined cloud swirl center of the surface low has been recently passing just offshore of Cape Fear North Carolina...and now heading for the South Carolina coast while continuing to be steered by a lobe of deep-layer ridging over the northeastern US and eastern Canada. The combination of 24 deg C Gulf stream waters and current upper air temps is not enough for instability...as evidenced by the lack of persisting thunderstorm activity in association with the deep-layered low pressure. As a result...tropical development is not anticipated before this system makes landfall on the South Carolina coast within the next 24 hours. This will be my final statement on this system on this blog.
Regarding impacts to land areas:
(1) Scattered showers across the Carolinas and perhaps eastern Georgia over the next 24 hours. Significant impact is not expected.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z May 13)...0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (Georgia/South Carolina border near 32.5N-81.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #1... surface low dissipates offshore of South Carolina at 12 hours.
1200Z ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #1...no development shown
1200Z GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #1... no development shown
1200Z NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #1... no development shown