*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY JULY 28 2022 1:35 AM EDT...
See area of interest #13 section below for an update on the large tropical wave of low pressure currently in the eastern tropical Atlantic now heading into the central tropical Atlantic. Also note the upward-motion (thunderstorm enhancing) portion of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is now positioned over the eastern tropical Atlantic(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). Therefore will monitor additional tropical waves to emerge into the eastern Atlantic from western Africa for signs of development in the days ahead.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #13 as I designated the other twelve of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #13...The large tropical wave of low pressure in the eastern tropical Atlantic is now accelerating westward into the central tropical Atlantic. The north side of the wave continues to display a large gyre which essentially looks like a large ball of dust while well-embedded in the dry saharan air layer. The southern portion of the wave previously displayed a second gyre which this area of interest was centered around. Over the last 24 hours thunderstorm activity on the south portion of the tropical wave has increased... however apparently too late as the southern gyre of low pressure has dissipated. Therefore in this update I am cancelling this area of interest... and this is my final statement on this area of interest on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 29)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 11N-40W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jul 27) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #13...no development shown
1200Z (Jul 27) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #13...no development shown
1800Z (Jul 27) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #13...no development shown
1800Z (Jul 27) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #13...no development shown