BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #53

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...SATURDAY JULY 23 2022 2:38 AM EDT...

Conditions across the tropical Atlantic have remained unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation for the following couple of reasons:

(1) An outbreak of dry saharan air across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

(2) The current configuration of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) for much of July has favored suppressed thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic tropics(https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml).


Per the lastest MJO data...the upward-motion (thunderstorm enhancing) portion of the MJO has begun to shift east toward the Atlantic basin. In addition some model runs indicate that the current tropical wave of low pressure over central Africa may evolve into a large tropical low pressure as it moves into the eastern tropical Atlantic in a few days. If the current eastern Atlantic tropical wave continues to repel the dry saharan air outbreak with ongoing thunderstorm activity... and if the current central Africa tropical wave can consoldiate into a tropical low a little further south away from cooler waters and the remainder of the dry air... their may be potential for the current central Africa tropical wave to develop once it reaches the Atlantic in a few days.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


1200Z (Jul 22) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Jul 22) ECMWF Model Run...

**Current tropical wave over central Africa emerges into the eastern tropical Atlantic by 96 hours as a large tropical low... tropical low located just west of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands by 120 hours.


0000Z (Jul 23) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1800Z (Jul 22) NAVGEM Model Run...

**Current tropical wave over central Africa emerges into the eastern tropical Atlantic at 102 hours... evolves into a large tropical low just offshore of Africa near 14.5N-19W at 108 hours... large tropical low moves into the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands by 120 hours.

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