*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY JULY 3 2022 2:24 AM EDT...
See the respective sections below for an update on the following tropical systems:
(1) Tropical Storm Bonnie which continues on in the eastern Pacific after crossing Central America
(2) Colin located on the coastal Carolinas… which appears to be dissipating.
(3) A vigorous tropical wave crossing the eastern Caribbean Sea… see area of interest #10 section below for more details.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post is designated #10 as I designated the other nine of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE… Due to its brisk westward motion… tropical storm Bonnie spent only a short time passing over the narrow part of Central America late Friday and early Saturday. This allowed Bonnie to maintain its well-defined center of spin and tropical storm status upon entry into the far eastern Pacific. As of late… Bonnie has fired strong thunderstorm on the west side of its circulation which has allowed it to quickly strengthen to 60 mph maximum sustained winds.
Bonnie is on par with the previous track forecast… the updated one in the outlook below is therefore unchanged. After 24 hours… the forecast track has a slow down and increase in northward angle as Bonnie finally reaches the west end of the steering eastern US surface ridge. However a sharp north angle is not shown in the models as Bonnie is expected to be a strong tropical cyclone… tall enough to be influenced by an upper ridge cell expected to be over southwestern Mexico. This upper ridge cell by day 4 is shown to erode away as the upper vorticity currently near Baja California… Texas… and western Cuba team up by merging and retrograding southwest. However another upper ridge cell centered near 20N-120W is expected to persist… and even buckle the track of Bonnie more westward by days 4 and 5.
For the intensity forecast… Bonnie has maintained a well-defined spin center while entering the eastern Pacific and has already started to intensify briskly. Moreover Bonnie is expected to stay below tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow. Therefore
I have made the call to increase the intensity forecast… bringing Bonnie to a major category 3 to 4 hurricane by 72+ hours. Note the intensity forecast flattens out by 96 and 120 hours as Bonnie will reach lower heat content while arriving to the edge of the 28+ deg C water temp field. In addition eye wall replacement cycles could also hamper intensification and instead cause intensity oscillations.
Regarding impacts to land areas… expect strengthening Bonnie to generate coastal sea swells for the south coasts of Mexico… Guatemala… and El Salvador.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0000Z Jul 3)… 60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the eastern Pacific offshore of Nicaragua and El Salvador at 11.3N-89.5W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 4)… 80 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the eastern Pacific at 12N-95W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 5)… 105 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the eastern Pacific at 13.5N-99W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 6)… 125 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered over the eastern Pacific at 14.5N-103W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 7)… 130 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered over the eastern Pacific at 15N-107W
IOH 120 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 8)… 130 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered over the eastern Pacific at 15N-111W
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN…When looking at recent infrared satellite image frames… one may ask where did Colin go? The strong thunderstorm activity offshore of the Carolinas that previously was the defining feature of Colin has dissipated… and a careful study of infrared satellite loops shows a thin cloud layer rotating over the southeast coastal region of North Carolina. It is becoming increasingly harder to spot Colin’s remnant rotating cloud layer as it is becoming masked by the incoming cloudiness over central North Carolina… tied to the cold front being pushed toward Colin by the current eastern Canada frontal low. As a result of Colin’s poor health… caused by land interaction and ongoing westerly shear… Colin has been downgraded to a tropical depression and will soon become a remnant low. As such… this will be my planned final statement on Colin.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0000Z Jul 3)… 35 mph maximum sustained wind tropical depression centered on the southeast coast of North Carolina at 34N-77.8W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 4)… Absorbed by cold front while located offshore of Maryland and Delaware at 37.5N-73.5W
AREA OF INTEREST #10...The vigorous eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave of low pressure has continued to produce bouts of widespread strong thunderstorms. However the wave remains undercut by wind shear induced by upper vorticity located in the region… which is displacing the thunderstorms northeastward from the wave axis. None of the models forecast this wave to develop in this shear environment… and I plan this to be my final statement on this area of interest on this blog unless it continues to be mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook by my next update.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 4)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Central Caribbean Sea near 15N-77.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jul 2) CMC Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Bonnie… located at 16.5N-112W as a hurricane at 120 hours
**For Tropical Storm Colin… merges with incoming cold front to the northwest while located at 36.5N-72.5W at 42 hours… remnant frontal low of Colin continues northeast and reaches 50N-45W at 120 hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
1200Z (Jul 2) ECMWF Model Run...
** For Tropical Storm Bonnie…located at 15.5N-112W as a hurricane at 120 hours
** For Tropical Storm Colin… merges with incoming cold front to the northwest while located at 38.5N-66W at 48 hours… remnant frontal low of Colin continues northeast and loses identity near 41N-49W just after 96 hours
**For area of interest #10...no development shown
1800Z (Jul 2) GFS Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Bonnie…located at 17N-111.2W as a hurricane at 120 hours
**For Tropical Storm Colin… not initialized
**For area of interest #10…no development shown
1800Z (Jul 2) NAVGEM Model Run...
** For Tropical Storm Bonnie…located at 16.5N-114W as a hurricane at 120 hours
**For Tropical Storm Colin… merges with incoming cold front to the northwest while located at 36.5N-71W at 36 hours… remnant frontal low of Colin continues northeast and reaches 50N-35W at 120 hours
**For area of interest #10… no development shown