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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...TUESDAY JUNE 28 2022 2:34 PM EDT...

The following is a special update for area of interest #9 mentioned in full post #45... located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. See full post #45 on the home page of this site for more information on area of interest #8 (potential tropical cyclone two) fast approaching the southeastern Caribbean region from the central Atlantic... and area of interest #10 located just east of area of interest #8.

AREA OF INTEREST #9...Satellite image taken of the area of interest as of 1806Z:

The tropical low pressure system in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as of this afternoon is establishing a better defined center of spin with thunderstorm activity around the spin gradually increasing. Conditions are favorable for additional development due to the low shear provided by the overhead upper ridge in the region and warm water temperatures... and this system could become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm as it continues westward around the steering central US surface ridge and before it makes landfall on the Texas coast over the next day or so. Due to the better defined center of spin... I have notably raised odds of tropical cyclone formation from the previous 0% in my prior update to now 50% in this update. This is also slightly higher than the NHC tropical weather outlook odds as of this writing due to how quickly the better defined spin center is developing.

Regarding impacts to land areas:

(1) This system may bring heavy rains with isolated flash flooding along the Texas coastal region from Matagorda Bay northeastward to the border with Louisiana. The heavy rainfall is possible even if tropical cyclone formation does not occurr.

(2) A local area of breezy or gusty winds may occur in the vicnity of Matagorda Bay Texas should this system become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before landfall.

****** outlook. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 29)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of Matagorda Bay Texas near 27.5N-96W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 30)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland over southern Texas near 28.5N-97.5W)

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