*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…SUNDAY JUNE 19 2022 10:15 PM EDT...
Tropical cyclone formation is no longer possible in the Bay of Campeche… see area of interest #6 section below for more information.
Elsewhere… the current deep-layer ridge over the United States is expected to push some of the upper vorticity tied to the current eastern Canada to northwest Atlantic upper trough southward across the western Atlantic and then southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean Sea over the next few days. Once in the Gulf and northwest Caribbean…this upper vorticity may aid to increase thunderstorm activity and drop surface pressures in the central Caribbean in about three days… due to a zone of upper divergence to setup between the south side of the upper vorticity and north side of a low-latitude tropical upper ridge over Central America and southern Caribbean. Any unfavorable wind shear induced by the upper vorticity is then likely to fade as the upper vorticity weakens while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air… and a tropical disturbance could form in the central Caribbean as a result. Currently there is not enough computer model support to declare an area of interest in this region… if model support increases or if observations warrant an area of interest would be added in future updates.
New to this site this year… I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme… will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #6 as I designated the other five of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season… when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #6… This area of interest was previously tracked as a western Caribbean low pressure which made landfall in Belize earlier in the weekend. In the last 24 hours it could be argued this low pressure was absorbed by the north side of eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Celia… in the process making Celia a notably larger system. In the previous update I was continuing this interest as a cluster of thunderstorms rotating westward on the north side of Celia’s now-large circulation and into the eastern Bay of Campeche. With those thunderstorms long-since dissipated and no local spin occurring in the north side of Celia in the Bay of Campeche… there is no discernible feature I can use to make a track forecast. Therefore in this update the usual track forecast with probabilities of development is not provided… and this will be my final statement on this area of interest on this blog.
Of note… thunderstorms have increased in the western Caribbean Sea in association with a tropical wave of low pressure that has been arriving from the east over the last 24 hours. However as this tropical wave continues west across the Yucatan peninsula and toward the Bay of Campeche… the current deep-layer ridge over the US will push upper vorticity from the current northwest Atlantic upper trough southwestward toward the tropical wave where it would suppress its upper outflow and thunderstorms. Whatever is left of the tropical wave will likely be absorbed into the north side of Celia… which would keep Celia’s circulation large perhaps for another 24 hours. Expect additional pockets of heavy rainfall across Costa Rica… Nicaragua… Honduras… El Salvador… Guatemala… and southeastern Mexico for another day or so until Celia’s circulation consolidates into a smaller system while also moving westward and away. Celia may also produce coastal sea swells across the south-facing Pacific coastline of Mexico as it strengthens later this week. See the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for more information on Celia as this site is dedicated to Atlantic tropical activity.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jun 19) CMC Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… No development shown
**For current western Caribbean tropical wave… crosses the Yucatan peninsula and enters the eastern Bay of Campeche at 18 hours… evolves into a tropical low near 19.5N-94.5W at 30 hours… tropical low pulled southwest into southern Veracruz by eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Celia at 54 hours where it dissipates
**Current east Canada to NW Atlantic upper trough deposits upper vortex offshore of the eastern US at 72 hours… split flow upper divergence between the west side of the vortex and east side of the deep-layer ridge currently building over the US drops surface pressures over Virginia and eastern North Carolina during this time…as upper vortex drifts southwest a broad surface low becomes defined across the southeast US by 90 hours…east end of the broad surface low evolves into an amplified surface trough offshore of the southeast US by 120 hours.
1200Z (Jun 19) ECMWF Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… No development shown
** For current western Caribbean tropical wave…crosses the Yucatan peninsula and enters the Bay of Campeche where it evolves a tropical low near 18.8N-93W at 24 hours… afterwards tropical low pulled southwest into southern Veracruz by eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Celia where it dissipates
1200Z (Jun 19) GFS Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… No development shown
** For current western Caribbean tropical wave… crosses the Yucatan peninsula and enters the eastern Bay of Campeche at 18 hours… develops into a tropical low near 18.8N-92W at 21 hours… through 48 hours the tropical low is pulled southwest across western Tabasco and southern Veracruz where it dissipates.
1200Z (Jun 19) NAVGEM Model Run...
** For area of interest #6… No development shown
**Surface low becomes defined east of southern Nicaragua at 72 hours… drifts northwest and reaches northern Nicaragua by 138 hours… original center dissipates over Honduras at 150 hours with a new center developing in the waters just offshore of northern Honduras at 168 hours