MY 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #7
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.********** ...MONDAY MAY 18 2020 9:53 PM EDT...
See Tropical Storm Arthur section below for details on the only active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Elsewhere it is quiet in the Atlantic tropics. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...After swiping the Outer Banks of North Carolina this morning with a round of gusty winds and heavy rains...Tropical Storm Arthur is accelerating east-northeastward out to sea tonight in response to the southeast quadrant of a frontal cyclone moving into the Great Lakes region of North America. This track is expected to continue over the next 24 hours as a surface ridge weakness to the east develops from the divergence zone ahead of an upper trough currently moving into southeastern Canada. Arthur's thunderstorms have strengthened in the last 24 hours...and the circulation itself has slightly strengthened to 50 mph maximum sustained winds...it appears in response to divergence out ahead of the large vigorous upper trough associated with the Great Lakes frontal cyclone. The flow ahead of this upper trough is also shearing Arthur's heaviest thunderstorms slightly northeast of its center. Shear is expected to increase for the remainder of the forecast period as Arthur moves into stronger upper westerly winds out ahead of the upper trough approaching from southeastern Canada...thus the intensity forecast below shows weakening going forward...albeit I have increased the shorter-term intensity forecast due to the amount of thunderstorms currently in Arthur's circulation and due to the current intensity being slightly higher than yesterday's forecast. As the upper trough over southeastern Canada shifts eastward and away...the associated surface ridge weakness should close...thus Arthur is likely to swing back southwestward by 72 hours. This is also the time I show dissipation to a remnant low as the southwestward drift would move this system out of the Gulf stream and into cooler waters. ******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast*********** 0 Hr Position (1800Z May 18)...50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina at 36.1N-73.9W IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z May 19)...40 mph maximum sustained wind sheared tropical storm centered at 37N-69W IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1800Z May 20)...35 mph maximum sustained wind sheared tropical depression centered north of Bermuda at 36N-64W IOH 72 Hr Forecast (1800Z May 21)...Remnant low pressure centered northwest of Bermuda at 34N-67.5W