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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...SATURDAY JULY 4 2020 12:08 AM EDT...

The following is a special update regarding the surface tropical low pressure located midway between the United States east coast and Bermuda...referred to as area of interest #2 in full birdseye view post #50. Nighttime shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggests a better defined low-level cloud swirl with persistent thunderstorm bursts on the south side of the swirl. Therefore it appears a tropical depression could be forming...and I have raised my odds of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours to 60%. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and heavy rains...with possible tropical storm conditions should further strengthening happen...could occur tonight into the early morning hours of Sunday.

****** outlook. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 5)...60% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 30.2N-68W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 6)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of Bermuda near 32.2N-60.5W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 7)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Atlantic near 35.2N-54W)

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