*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY SEPTEMBER 21 2020 10:36 PM EDT...
It appears that thunderstorm activity has increased and become organized around the center of the remnant low pressure of Paulette...this special update is to declare that Paulette has likely regenerated as a subtropical cyclone and to issue the subtropical cyclone formation forecast outlined below. Forecast track is based on the fact that Paulette is beginning to move east along 34N latitude along with its parent upper vorticity. It appears Paulette is now below the eastern divergence zone of the upper vorticity which maybe why the thunderstorm activity has increased. By 48 hours I assume Paulette will lose it’s thunderstorms and tropical character while moving over cooler waters. These developments mean Madeira island is more likely to see gusty winds and heavy rain from Paulette by tomorrow night.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0000Z Sep 22)...Surface low centered in the eastern Atlantic at 34N-26W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Sep 23)...45 mph maximum sustained wind subtropical Storm centered just northwest of Madeira Island at 34N-17.5W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Sep 24)...Remnant non tropical low pressure centered midway between Madeira Island and Portugal at 34N-12.5W