MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #208
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 25 2019 2:25 PM EDT...
The disturbance mentioned in the area of interest section below no longer has potential for acquiring tropical characteristics. Therefore this is my final birdseye view blog post till the start of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season in June...or unless the potential for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic returns before then.
AREA OF INTEREST #1...The broad surface frontal low and upper vortex moving east-southeastward in the western Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda...due to the push of the expanding deep-layered ridge over the eastern United States...continues to lack showers and thunderstorm at its core as the contrast between cold temperatures of the upper vortex and 24 deg C waters are not enough to trigger activity. Perhaps this is due to widespread adjacent dry air just to the west caused by western upper-level convergence of the upper vortex. This dry air is strongly pronounced over the Bahamas and Cuba in water vapor satellite. In the next 24 hours...broad northwestern Atlantic upper troughing is forecast to amplify southward due to the strength of the deep-layered ridging over the United States...which will allow it to absorb the upper vortex. This upper air pattern will result in increasingly unfavorable westerly wind shear across the western Atlantic as the upper vortex loses its defintion...and therefore the window for tropical development is closing.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Dec 26)...0% chance of subtropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 25N-62W)