MY 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #176
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY NOVEMBER 3 2019 10:53 AM EDT...
The cut-off upper vortex north of the Lesser Antilles continues producing thunderstorms with its eastern divergence zone. The surface trough of low pressure produced in this activity yesterday has decoupled from the thunderstorms while moving westward toward the latest surface cold front entering the western Atlantic. Over the next few days...the upper vortex if forecast to drift southward and away from the surface trough while warm western Atlantic upper ridging expands in warm air advection ahead of the aforementioned front...and the surface trough itself will be re-enforced by the tail end of the front becoming cut-off to the south of the strong surface ridge that will soon eject from the southeastern US. Although the southward shift of the upper vortex may cause a burst of unfavorable northerly shear across the surface trough...unfavorable shear could subsequently reduce and favorable upper outflow increase as the western Atlantic upper ridge expands over the surface trough. So far ASCAT passes have not indicated that a closed surface spin has developed along the surface trough. Waiting for the development of a closed surface spin or how this disturbance manages the potential aforementioned burst of unfavorable shear before adding this disturbance as an area of interest for tropical development.