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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...MONDAY OCTOBER 14 2019 11:08 AM EDT...

The active tropical wave currently emerging from western Africa into the Atlantic tropics is showing signs of a well-organized low pressure spin while dry saharan air just to the west appears reduced...and upper winds in the short-term will be favorable for tropical development due to persistent eastern tropical Atlantic upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow. Therefore in this special update I am raising my short-term odds of tropical cyclone formaion to 95%...and in my full update later today will be doing a tropical cyclone formation forecast if this disturbance is not upgaded to a tropical depression or storm by then. I recommend that interests in the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands should begin preparations for some damaging gusty winds in the event this system becomes a stregnthening tropical storm while moving into the islands in the next day or so. The short-term updated positions in the outlook below are nudged south and west to account for the current position of the low pressure spin. A turn increasingly to the north into the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands is expected assuming that a sufficiently strong/tall tropical cyclone develops that is dragged by a cut-off upper trough to be left behind by the current large northeastern Atlantic upper trough. The reduced chances of development shown at 54 and 78 hours is a reflection of increasing unfavorable southweserly shear as this system nears the cut-off upper trough.

****** outlook. Visit (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 6 Hr Outlook (1800Z Oct 14)...95% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just east of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 14N-19.5W)

IOH 30 Hr Outlook (1800Z Oct 15)...95% chance of tropical cyclone formation (over the southeastern Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 15.5N-22W)

IOH 54 Hr Outlook (1800Z Oct 16)...50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (over northwestern Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 16.5N-25W)

IOH 78 Hr Outlook (1800Z Oct 17)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (west-northwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 17.5N-28.5W)

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