*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY JULY 7 2022 12:10 PM EDT...
The following is a special update while I am on vacation… concerning former Atlantic Tropical Storm Bonnie which has spent the last few days as an eastern Pacific hurricane after it crossed over a narrow part of Central America. Elsewhere… tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated across the Atlantic tropics.
HURRICANE BONNIE… Montage of infrared satellite images of Hurricane Bonnie over the last few days. The associated maximum sustained winds (mph) and surface central pressure (mb) for each image is listed below:
Point A… July 4 1210Z (7:10 AM CDT)… 80 mph… 987 mb
Point B… July 4 2120Z (4:20 PM CDT)… 100 mph… 978 mb
Point C… July 5 2120Z (4:20 PM CDT)…115 mph… 964 mb
Point D… July 7 1000Z (4:00 AM MDT)… 90 mph… 980 mb
Since full update #49 on the home page of this site released a few days ago… Tropical Storm Bonnie proceeded to become a hurricane in the eastern Pacific on late Sunday July 3 and then a major category 3 hurricane on Tuesday July 5. The combination of warm 28+ deg C water temps and low shear/outflow of tropical upper ridging allowed for this strengthening. During this strengthening phase… Bonnie tracked west-northwest in a gap between an eastern US surface ridge and Central Pacific surface ridge… on a course generally parallel to the south coast of Mexico… and the hurricane as anticipated earlier brought sea swells along the coastline. Despite traversing the aforementioned gap between surface ridges… Bonnie did not sharply curve north in track due while strong/tall enough to be influenced by an upper ridge cell over southwestern Mexico. A more westward and less northward track is anticipated while Bonnie reaches the influence of another upper ridge cell in the vicinity of 20N-120W… and an increase in forward speed is expected by 48 hours once Bonnie nears the Central Pacific surface ridge which will add to the westward push. Bonnie has weakened below its major hurricane peak and is now a category 1 hurricane due to cooler water temps. Once Bonnie reaches water temps below 26 deg C… more rapid weakening is expected and I forecast Bonnie to be a remnant low by 48 hours.
*******Infohurricanes dot com forecast. Visit hurricanes dot gov for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0600Z Jul 7)… 90 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the eastern Pacific at 17.1N-112.5W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 8)… 60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over the eastern Pacific at 17.5N-117.5W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 9)… Remnant low centered over the eastern Pacific at 17.5N-123.5W