MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #58A (Special Update)

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...SATURDAY AUGUST 16 2025 2:00 PM EDT...

The following is a special update on rapidly intensifying Hurricane Erin... currently working on a new full update on the Atlantic tropics which will include an updated forecast for Erin... meanwhile my previous update on the rest of the Atlantic tropics can be found at the following web address:

https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-58

Erin has explosively intensified into not only the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season... but into a full-blown category 5 hurricane while approaching and then moving into the waters north of the northern Lesser Antilles while under surveillance of aircraft reconnaissance. Erin finally achieved hurricane strength per aircraft recon data as of 11 AM EDT (1500Z) Friday. By Friday evening (2200Z and later) it appeared Erin developed a small but well-organized inner core with small eye which walled off the dry Saharan air to the northeast. This allowed for Erin to begin its rapid intensification and it achieved category 2 strength by 11 PM EDT (0300Z) that evening. The intensification escalated this morning with Erin vaulting through category 3 status and right into category 4 status around 0900Z to 1000Z (5 AM to 6 AM EDT). The intensification has not stopped with the central pressure falling to 917 mb through 11:20 AM EDT... and Erin is now a category 5 hurricane with 160 mph maximum sustained winds. In all Erin went from category 1 to 5 within 24 hours... a satellite sequence and list of NHC advisory stats summarizing the intensification is shown below.

During the intensification process it appears the thunderstorm latent heat release of the hurricane weakened the cool-core band of tropical-latitude upper vorticity to the northwest... reducing its steering effect and allowing the hurricane to bend more west and less north in track. It is also apparent the western Atlantic surface ridge weakness being induced by the arrival of the frontal system from the northeastern US and eastern Canada has not matured enough yet to affect the hurricane's track. This has allowed Erin to track closer to the northeastern Caribbean Islands. While the core of tropical storm and more violent hurricane force winds has cleared the islands to the north.... the southern outer rain bands have not while overspread the northern Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands overnight... and will soon overspread Puerto Rico. Mudslides cannot be ruled out in mountainous terrain. Surf will continue reaching the shores of the northeastern Caribbean Islands... eventually spreading to the Bahamas... Bermuda... and southeastern United States coast in the days ahead.

Satellite sequence showing the rapid intensification of Hurricane Erin from category 1 to category 5 within 24 hours:

List of National Hurricane Center advisory statistics documenting Erin's rapid intensification:

**Fri Aug 15 1500Z (11 AM EDT)... 75 mph max sustained winds (category 1)... 996 mb minimum central surface pressure... centered at 18.2N-56.1W

**Fri Aug 15 1800Z (2 PM EDT)... 75 mph max sustained winds (category 1)... 993 mb minimum central surface pressure (average drop of 1 mb per hour since previous update)... centered at 18.6N-56.8W

**Fri Aug 15 2100Z (5 PM EDT)... 75 mph max sustained winds (category 1)... 993 mb minimum central surface pressure (average drop of 0 mb per hour since previous update)... centered at 18.9N-57.6W

**Sat Aug 16 0000Z (8 PM EDT)... 85 mph max sustained winds (category 1)... 982 mb minimum central surface pressure (average drop of 3.6 mb per hour since previous update)... centered at 19.4N-58.5W

**Sat Aug 16 0300Z (11 PM EDT)... 100 mph max sustained winds (category 2)... 979 mb minimum central surface pressure (average drop of 1 mb per hour since previous update)... centered at 19.5N-59.5W

**Sat Aug 16 0600Z (2 AM EDT)... 100 mph max sustained winds (category 2)... 971 mb minimum central surface pressure (average drop of 2.6 mb per hour since previous update)... centered at 19.7N-60.6W

**Sat Aug 16 0900Z (5 AM EDT)... 120 mph max sustained winds (category 3)... 955 mb minimum central surface pressure (average drop of 5.3 mb per hour since previous update)... centered at 19.8N-61.1W

**Sat Aug 16 0950Z (5:50 AM EDT)... 130 mph max sustained winds (category 4)... 948 mb minimum central surface pressure (drop of 7 mb in 50 minutes since previous update)... centered at 19.6N-61.5W

**Sat Aug 16 1200Z (8 AM EDT)... 145 mph max sustained winds (category 4)... 935 mb minimum central surface pressure (average drop of 6.6 mb per hour since 5 AM EDT update)... centered at 19.6N-62W

**Sat Aug 16 1500Z (11 AM EDT)... 155 mph max sustained winds (category 4)... 923 mb minimum central surface pressure (average drop of 4 mb per hour since previous update)... centered at 19.7N-62.8W

**Sat Aug 16 1520Z (11:20 AM EDT)... 160 mph max sustained winds (category 5)... 917 mb minimum central surface pressure (average drop of 5.4 mb per hour since 8 AM EDT update)... centered at 19.7N-62.8W

**Sat Aug 16 1800Z (2:00 PM EDT)... 160 mph maximum sustained winds (category 5)... 915 mb minimum central surface pressure (average drop of 0.75 mb per hour since previous update)... centered at 19.8N-63.3W