MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #33

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...TUESDAY JULY 8 2025 6:30 AM EDT...

The surface trough of low pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas has re-formed further west toward the Bahamas in an area of supporting split flow upper divergence between a small upper vortex near 29N-71W recently left behind by the current north Atlantic upper trough... and larger Caribbean upper vortex currently centered just south of Jamaica. Over the next 24 hours the surface trough is likely to move west-northwest into the northwestern Bahamas while rounding the southwest edge of the current Atlantic surface ridge... and tropical development is unlikely during that time as the two upper vortices merge atop of the surface trough and suppress its upper outflow as the small upper vortex to the north is forced southwest closer to the Caribbean upper vortex under the force of the upper ridge that recently departed the eastern US. If the surface trough survives the next 24 hours... it should settle in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula in weak steering currents between a weak surface front passing to the north and weakened west side of the steering Atlantic surface ridge. The weak surface front and weakening of the west nose of the steering Atlantic ridge is to be induced by the divergence zone of the upper trough approaching from the north-central US... this upper trough is also likely to then pull the small upper vortex to the north away from the Caribbean upper vortex to the south which could allow for the re-development of upper outflow over the surface trough. However waiting to see if the surface trough survives the shorter-term unfavorability in the next 24 hours first... and none of the models show the surface trough developing.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin... the Atlantic tropics are calm.

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

1200Z (Jul 7) CMC Model Run...

**Current north-central US upper trough continues east and drives a surface cold front into the northwestern Atlantic from the northeastern US by 96 hours... a surface low develops along tail end of the surface front at 40N-58.5W at 138 hours which is positioned underneath upper ridging to the southwest of the upper trough... the combination of the upper ridging outflow and warm sea surface temps at northeast end of the Gulf stream allows the surface low to become a compact tropical low near 41N-55W by 144 hours... becomes a compact tropical cyclone near 42.5N-51.5W at 150 hours... next upper trough approaching from eastern Canada captures this system and it transitions from a compact tropical cyclone to an expanding surface frontal cyclone east of Newfoundland supported by the eastern divergence zone of the upper trough by 168 hours

1200Z (Jul 7) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin over the next 168 hours (7 days)

0000Z (Jul 8) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin over the next 168 hours (7 days)

0000Z (Jul 8) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin over the next 168 hours (7 days)