MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #32

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...SUNDAY JULY 6 2025 4:50 PM EDT...

See Tropical Depression Chantal section below for an update on the tropical cyclone that moved into the Carolinas overnight through early today.

To the southeast of Chantal... in the waters between Bermuda and the Bahamas... a surface trough of low pressure with associated showers and thunderstorms persists due to supporting upper divergence along the leading edge of upper vorticity to the north being left by the current northwest Atlantic upper trough. Soon the upper vorticity will be pushed further south and over the surface trough by the upper ridge exiting the eastern US where the upper vorticity would be able to cap development of the trough... therefore tropical development is not expected due to the short amount of time before upper winds become unfavorable.

For the low-latitudes of the tropical Atlantic... tropical development between the Lesser Antilles islands and west coast of Africa has been precluded over the last several days by surges of dry Saharan air. The vigorous tropical wave of low pressure that exited western Africa yesterday initially had an advantage while an adjacent larger wave to the west appeared to be pulling the dry Saharan air northward and away. As the vigorous wave passes south of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands today... it appears its north side is now ingesting dry Saharan air as its northern squalls of thunderstorms have dissipated on colorized infrared satellite imagery. Therefore not upgrading the tropical wave to an area of interest.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL... Sequence of infrared satellite images that chronicle Tropical Storm Chantal's landfall into the Carolinas from 0126Z to 1516Z July 6 (approximately 9 PM EDT July 5 to 11 AM EDT this morning). The surface center of circulation is marked with crosshairs in each image:

While Tropical Storm Chantal neared the Carolina coast overnight... wind shear dropped over the storm as the eastern US upper ridge pushed the shearing southeastern US upper vorticity southwest and away... resulting in a low shear and anticyclonic upper outflow environment on the southeast side of the encroaching upper ridge and over Chantal. The surface center proceeded to wrap in the once sheared off thunderstorms to the northeast... and the storm reached a peak strength of 60 mph maximum sustained winds by the time the center made landfall over northeastern South Carolina between 2 AM and 5 AM EDT. The northward track since landfall has had a westward lean due to the blocking eastern US surface ridge passing to the north... and as of 11 AM EDT (1500Z) Chantal has weakened to a 35 mph maximum sustained wind tropical depression due to the landfall centered near the North Carolina/ South Carolina border... at 34.4N-79.2W. Around 1800Z visible satellite imagery and radar imagery suggests the center was moving further into south-central North Carolina and nearing 34.8N latitude... and this is the center fix I used for my forecast I completed around that time. Radar imagery as of this writing shows the core of the circulation is producing heavy rainfall (with flash flooding risk) across central and north-central North Carolina... spreading into south-central Virginia... there are also eastern outer bands of heavy rainfall rotating into eastern North Carolina. As the blocking surface ridge to the north continues offshore... the remnant low of Chantal should bend more north then north-northeast in track while rounding the offshore steering Atlantic surface ridge... shifting the heavy rainfall/ flooding risk zone across central and eastern Virginia... Maryland... and Delaware over the next 24 hours. This will be my final statement on Chantal on this blog as it will soon weaken further to a remnant low... future statements regarding impacts to land areas from the remnants of Chantal will be on the home page bulletins of this site.

Note the following are the strongest winds (in mph) that were recorded at each of the following National Weather Service stations (weather.gov) as Tropical Storm Chantal moved into the Carolinas:

**Georgetown (northeast SC coast)... sustained 17... gust 33... 3:55 PM EDT July 5

**Myrtle Beach (northeast SC coast)... sustained 21... gust 32... 12:53 AM EDT July 6

**Florence (inland northeast SC)... sustained 20... gust 31... 7:53 AM EDT July 6

**Cheraw (inland northeast SC)... sustained 22... gust 32... 10:52 AM EDT July 6

**Wilmington (southeast NC coast)... sustained 22... gust 36... 2:53 PM EDT July 6

**Lumberton (inland southeast NC)... sustained 13... gust 38... 1:56 PM EDT July 5

**Fayetteville (inland southeast NC)... sustained 22... gust 33... 10:53 AM EDT July 6

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 6)... 35 mph maximum sustained wind tropical depression centered over south-central North Carolina at 34.8N-79.2W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 7)... Remnant low centered over southeastern Virginia at 37N-77.5W

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 AM EDT***********************

1-Day Position (1200Z Jul 7)... 30 mph maximum sustained wind dissipating inland remnant low centered over southeastern Virginia at 37N-77.7W

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

1200Z (Jul 6) CMC Model Run...

**For Tropical Depression Chantal... weakens to a remnant low over northeastern North Carolina by 18 hours... through 30 hours the remnant low turns northeast across southeastern Virginia... southeastern Maryland... and Delaware... by 48 hours the remnant low is offshore and just south of Cape Cod Massachusetts where it loses identity to incoming surface front to the northwest

0000Z (Jul 6) ECMWF Model Run...

**For Tropical Depression Chantal... moves northeast onto the southeast coast of Virginia by 42 hours where it weakens to a remnant low... remnant low positioned just offshore of New Jersey at 54 hours and passes over Cape Cod Massachusetts between 60 and 66 hours after which time it merges with an incoming surface front to the northwest which transitions it to a remnant frontal low... remnant frontal low turns increasingly east which keeps it just offshore of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland through 84 hours... over northeast Atlantic the remnant frontal low increasingly elongates into a north-south surface cold front/ remnant trough with the remnant trough positioned along 19W longitude by 168 hours

1200Z (Jul 6) GFS Model Run...

**For Tropical Depression Chantal... through 24 hours weakens to a remnant low over the eastern North Carolina/ Virginia border... loses identity to incoming surface front from the northwest shortly thereafter

1200Z (Jul 6) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For Tropical Depression Chantal... through 18 hours weakens to a remnant low over the eastern/ central part of the North Carolina/ Virginia border... remnant low continues northeast across southeastern Virginia... central Maryland... Delaware... southern New Jersey... Long Island New York... Rhode Island... Cape Cod Massachusetts through 48 hours... remnant low becomes absorbed by developing frontal low over Maine at 54 hours