MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #25A (Special Update)

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...SATURDAY JUNE 28 2025 5:33 PM EDT...

See area of interest #7 section below for an update on the Bay of Campeche tropical low pressure which has recently been upgraded to tropical depression two by the National Hurricane Center as of 5 PM EDT... this is the second tropical cyclone of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season after short-lived Tropical Storm Andrea in the open central Atlantic on June 24.

AREA OF INTEREST #7 (RECENTLY UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO)... Visible satellite imagery of broad tropical low pressure field containing twin centers over the Bay of Campeche and eastern Pacific... image taken at 1910Z. Note the Bay of Campeche center was upgraded to Tropical Depression Two not long after this image was taken:

Newly-formed tropical depression two is one of two twin centers within a broad low pressure envelope covering southeastern Mexico and adjacent offshore waters... the other twin center is over the eastern Pacific due south of Oaxaca province. Information on the genesis of this broad low pressure field over the last several days was provided in update #25 earlier today (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-25)

This system is now a tropical cyclone... as such I have generated specific track and intensity forecast points as outlined below. For track... this system is expected to continue west-northwest into the central and northern Veracruz region of east-central Mexico in the low-level flow between the eastern Pacific tropical low and eastern US surface ridge. As the cyclone nears Veracruz in 24 hours it will interact with northern Mexico upper vortex which will tend to block the upper outflow in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. Due to today's rapid tropical cyclone formation... this system now has a chance to become strong/tall enough to interact with the upper vortex and bend a little north in track before landfall... my forecast calls for a jump to 21.5N latitude with the NHC calling for 22.1N. After 24 hours the current central US upper ridge merges with the offshore Atlantic upper ridge... with the flow around the west side of the merged upper ridge allowing the fading northern Mexico upper vortex to make a northward escape and hence reducing the upper southerly flow ahead of the upper vortex. In addition to the loss of upper southerly flow... the westward turn into Mexico after 24 hours is further helped by the steering eastern US surface ridge relocating to the southwest across the northern Gulf of America while supported by the western convergence zone of the southeastern US upper vortex... especially when it later merges with the incoming central Atlantic upper vorticity which will re-enforce the upper convergence zone. I do not call for a strength higher than 45 mph maximum sustained winds at 24 hours as the northwest quadrant increasingly experiences upper outflow blockage. Note the intensity forecast at 48 hours just after landfall is the same at 24 hours... implying that I think the tropical cyclone could reach a strength higher than 45 mph maximum sustained winds after 24 hours and just before landfall once the outflow-blocking northern Mexico upper vortex escapes away.

Impact to a swath of east-central Mexico is expected late this weekend into early next week as follows... heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential anticipated across central and northern Veracruz and neighboring inland provinces to the west. The northward kink in the forecast track means Tamaulipas may also see heavy rainfall from the northern outer bands of this system. Gusty winds and coastal surf for central and northern Veracruz has become likely. For impacts further south and southwest in association with the eastern Pacific tropical low... which is expected to turn increasingly west-northwest and parallel to the south-facing Pacific coast of Mexico while becoming stronger/taller to be guided by the upper easterlies associated with the current southwest Mexico upper ridge... refer to the National Hurricane Center site at hurricanes.gov as this site is focused on Atlantic basin systems.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (1800Z Jun 28)... Tropical low centered over the central Bay of Campeche at 19.8N-94W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jun 29)... 45 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered offshore of Veracruz at 20.5N-96W

IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jun 30)... 45 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered just inland over northern Veracruz at 21.5N-98W

IOH 72 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 1)... Dissipating remnant trough over east-central Mexico near 21.5N-99.5W

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 5 PM EDT***********************

Peak Strength (1800Z Jun 29)... 40 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered offshore of Veracruz at 20.8N-96.1W

2-Day Position (1800Z Jun 30)... 25 mph maximum sustained wind dissipating remnant low centered inland at 22.1N-98.7W