MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #25

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...UPDATE...SATURDAY JUNE 28 2025 6:22 PM EDT...

The Bay of Campeche area of interest is now tropical depression two... see special update #25A for more details (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-25a-special-update)

...UPDATE...SATURDAY JUNE 28 2025 2:25 PM EDT...

Regarding the Bay of Campeche area of interest tagged as area of interest #7 in this blog post... visible satellite imagery shows the tropical low that was emerging offshore from the Yucatan peninsula's Campeche province around 11:45 AM EDT has quickly re-formed to the west around increasing thunderstorms offshore of Tabasco and southeastern Veracruz... with signs of a fully closed circulation on the north side of these thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center has raised odds of tropical cyclone formation to 70%... and now agree with raising my odds of tropical cyclone formation from 20% to the NHC's current 70%. Central and northern Veracruz have an increased likelihood of seeing tropical cyclone conditions such as gusty winds and coastal surf later this weekend... in addition to heavy rainfall with flash flood potential for central and northern Veracruz as well as neighboring inland provinces to the west... interests in this region should now be carefully monitoring the progress of this situation. Will issue a special update on this area of interest shortly.

...SATURDAY JUNE 28 2025 11:45 AM EDT...

Due to a personal illness that I have recently overcome... it has been about 66 hours since my previous update released Wednesday afternoon. The products of this update were gradually completed during this period as follows... computer model summary section assembled Friday 0600Z... above graphics in birdseye view chart assembled on Friday from 0600Z to 1800Z... and the text for this update created this morning. Forecast for new area of interest #7 was completed during 1800Z Friday and as such the three forecast points for the area of interest are currently 6... 30... and 54 hours away as of the time of this writing.

See area of interest #7 section below for the sprawling tropical low pressure area covering western Central America... southeastern Mexico... and adjacent Bay of Campeche and eastern Pacific waters.

For the Bahamas and vicinity... the area of disturbed weather between the current southeastern US upper vortex and central Atlantic upper vorticity has dissipated perhaps as the gap between the two upper features is insufficient for upper outflow conditions.

AREA OF INTEREST #7... Satellite imagery of broad tropical low pressure field containing twin centers over southeastern Mexico and the eastern Pacific:

For the western Atlantic tropical latitudes (western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche) and eastern Pacific... the regional string of upper vorticity that was along 25N latitude has continued to weaken while isolated from high-latitude cold air due to the current eastern US to north Atlantic warm core upper ridge... and has decayed into one upper vortex over northern Mexico... another that has retrograded northwest around the southwest side of the upper ridge and into the southeastern US... with the remainder of the upper vorticity string positioned over the central Atlantic. This has allowed for an expanding upper anticyclone in the vicinity of Central America whose outflow has promoted regional surface pressure falls and thunderstorms. The current eastern Pacific tropical low... which the NHC has been monitoring for possible tropical cyclone formation... formed due to focused split flow upper divergence west of Costa Rica on June 21... see previous post #21 for details (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-21). In the following days the eastern Pacific tropical low was nudged west toward 95W longitude by the recent eastern US surface ridge... followed by a northward drift toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca while gravitated back toward surface pressure falls over Central America and the western Caribbean once the core of the expanding central America upper anticyclone and its pressure-dropping outflow took a position toward that area. Competition for surface inflow with the remainder Central America/ western Caribbean surface low pressure field appears to have precluded further development of the eastern Pacific tropical low so far. By Wednesday June 25 a pair of closely spaced surface tropical waves of African origin were sliding underneath the upper anticyclone... the surface convergence of the waves combined with the upper outflow resulted in an increase in Caribbean thunderstorm just offshore of Central America. In their tropical weather outlook... the NHC initiated a new area of interest in the western Caribbean just offshore of Belize on 8 PM EDT Thursday June 26... just west of a mass of thunderstorms as increasing cyclonic curvature of the thunderstorm clouds suggested that was the location of maximum low-level spin and the CIMSS 850 mb vorticity product also agreed (https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=). This marks the seventh tropical Atlantic area of interest tracked on this site this year.

On Friday June 27 through this morning... the new tropical low has continued west-northwest in the flow between the eastern Pacific tropical low and eastern US surface ridge... crossing northern Belize... southern Quintana Roo... and reaching its current position over western Campeche province of southeastern Mexico... and it will enter the Bay of Campeche later today (note since 1800Z yesterday the NHC TAFB surface analysis finally upgraded the western of the two tropical waves into a tropical low pressure). Even though yesterday evening the eastern Pacific tropical low had an increasing loss of thunderstorms while appearing to lose the battle for surface inflow with the neighboring Campeche province tropical low... I only assigned a low 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation for the Campeche low (currently below the NHC odds of development) as I speculated the north side of the eastern Pacific tropical low and south side of the Campeche low could struggle to close off as the two potentially merge into an oblong system. And as of this morning I continue to assign a low 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation as the eastern Pacific tropical low has appeared to become the dominant of the two while seeing an increase in curved thunderstorm bands while the Campeche tropical low lacks central thunderstorms (instead as of 1100Z this morning there was one small clump to the west offshore of Tabasco and a larger complex to the east covering northern Belize and northern Guatemala... as well as the southern Yucatan peninsula). As the tropical low later makes landfall in Veracruz it will interact with southerly upper winds associated with the northern Mexico upper vortex... this may introduce some disrupting shear which is yet another reason I have odds of development on the lower side. I also do not bend the track to the north later in the forecast period as the low odds also mean less likelihood this system becomes strong/tall enough to be steered by the upper southerly winds... and as the steering eastern US surface ridge relocates to the southwest across the northern Gulf of America while supported by the western convergence zone of the southeastern US upper vortex... especially when it later merges with the incoming central Atlantic upper vorticity which will re-enforce the upper convergence zone.

Regarding impacts to land areas... the Campeche tropical low has already produced heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula... northern Belize... and northern Guatemala. The primary impact going forward is potential for heavy rainfall across central and northern Veracruz and neighboring inland provinces to the west... the potential for coastal gusty winds and surf for central and northern Veracruz appears low for now due to the current odds of tropical cyclone formation. For impacts further south and southwest in association with the eastern Pacific tropical low... which is expected to turn increasingly west-northwest and parallel to the south-facing Pacific coast of Mexico while becoming stronger/taller to be guided by the upper easterlies associated with the current southwest Mexico upper ridge... refer to the National Hurricane Center site at hurricanes.gov as this site is focused on Atlantic basin systems.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 6 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 28)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Bay of Campeche near 19.8N-94.8W)

IOH 30 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 29)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of Veracruz near 20.5N-96.8W)

IOH 54 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 30)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland over east-central Mexico near 20.8N-98.5W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 AM EDT***********************

Formation chance through 48 hours... 50%

Formation chance through 7 days... 50%

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

0000Z (Jun 27) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #7... after crossing the southern Yucatan peninsula becomes a better-defined tropical low over the SW Bay of Campeche by 36 hours... consolidates into a more compact tropical low which makes landfall on the northern Veracruz coast by 72 hours... inland dissipation shortly thereafter

0000Z (Jun 27) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #7... after crossing the southern Yucatan peninsula becomes a better-defined but still broad tropical low over SE Bay of Campeche by 30 hours... makes landfall over the Tamaulipas/ Veracruz border by 72 hours with inland dissipation shortly thereafter

0600Z (Jun 27) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #7... no development shown

0600Z (Jun 27) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #7... after crossing the Yucatan peninsula proceeds west-northwest into the central Bay of Campeche through 42 hours as a surface trough... center and northwest part of trough makes landfall along Veracruz coast while remainder southeast part becomes a small tropical low near 20.5N-96.5W at 78 hours... tropical low continues west-northwest and makes landfall on the northern Veracruz coast by 96 hours with inland dissipation shortly thereafter