MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #24

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...WEDNESDAY JUNE 25 2025 5:30 PM EDT...

See remnants of Andrea section below for final remarks on what was the short-lived tropical cyclone in the open central Atlantic.

For the western Atlantic tropical latitudes (western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche) and eastern Pacific... the current string of upper vorticity along 25N latitude is continuing to weaken while isolated from high-latitude cold air due to the current eastern US to northwest Atlantic warm core upper ridge. This is allowing for an increasingly defined upper anticyclone in the vicinity of Central America. In the days ahead will be watching for possible eastern Pacific and/or western Caribbean/Bay of Campeche tropical development as the outflow of the upper anticyclone promotes regional thunderstorms and lower surface pressures. The NHC is currently monitoring for the next eastern Pacific development in their tropical weather outlook which will likely spring up from the tropical low near 9N-92.5W... for more on the possible eastern Pacific development see outlook at hurricanes.gov as this site is focused on Atlantic basin tropical development. Meanwhile not declaring an area of interest for the Atlantic basin side (western Caribbean/ Bay of Campeche) as the global models are not in agreement for development and current observations such as visible satellite loops and CIMSS 850 mb vorticity product (https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=) do not currently show a well-defined low-level rotation in the current Caribbean thunderstorm activity offshore of Central America (note the current Caribbean activity may be being enhanced by closely spaced surface tropical waves of low pressure of African origin that are now passing through the area). Note the regional tropical development potential ends from east to west in the long range in association with a cell of suppressive open central Atlantic upper vorticity that retrogrades west into the region under the force of the current northwest Atlantic upper ridging... thus tropical development potential ends for the Caribbean by day 4 and for the Bay of Campeche by day 6.

For the Bahamas and vicinity... weather conditions are currently being controlled by the string of upper vorticity along 25N latitude... as such the southeastern divergence zone of a vortex within the string and near the northwestern Bahamas is contributing to an increase in thunderstorms just northeast of the Bahamas. Under the force of upper ridging to the north... the upper vortex near the northwestern Bahamas will retrograde northwest into the southeastern United States and a cell of upper vorticity from the open central Atlantic will approach from the east. Over the next 60 hours... although not shown in global model runs... the thunderstorm activity currently northeast of the Bahamas may evolve into a short-lived tropical disturbance as an area of low vertical shear and split flow upper divergence materializes between the two upper vorticity features. Such a short-lived disturbance would move west in the low-level flow... in the vicinity of the Bahamas... south Florida peninsula... western Cuba... and southeastern Gulf of America. After 60 hours conditions for tropical development become hostile as the upper vorticity cell from the open central Atlantic arrives from the east and absorbs the southeast US upper vortex... creating a large area of suppressing upper vorticity in the region.

REMNANTS OF ANDREA... See previous post #23 for information regarding the genesis of Tropical Storm Andrea in the open central Atlantic (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-23). The tropical cyclone was very short-lived... only lasting for three NHC advisories spaced 6-hours apart from 11 AM EDT to 11 PM EDT yesterday as Andrea quickly lost all thunderstorms from a combination of decreased sea-surface temps along its northeast track and suppressive southeastern convergence zone of the upper ridge expanding into the northwest Atlantic from the eastern US... note the northeast track is due to the low-level flow between the rapidly-moving surface frontal low now passing to the north and Atlantic surface ridge to the southeast. Ex-Andrea... now currently positioned in the open north-central Atlantic... will soon lose its identity to the much larger low pressure field of the aforementioned frontal low... and this is my final statement on Andrea on this blog as it is no longer a tropical feature.

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

1200Z (Jun 25) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)

0000Z (Jun 25) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)

1200Z (Jun 25) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)

1200Z (Jun 25) NAVGEM Model Run...

**While current eastern Pacific tropical low persists an additional Caribbean tropical low materializes offshore of northwestern Honduras and southern Belize by 66 hours... while orbiting the adjacent eastern Pacific circulation the Caribbean tropical low continues west-northwest across Belize and far southern Yucatan peninsula and reaches the eastern Bay of Campeche by 84 hours... while possibly becoming a tropical depression the tropical low continues northwest into the waters just offshore of the Veracruz/ Tamaulipas border through 168 hours