MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #19

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...WEDNESDAY JUNE 18 2025 5:14 PM EDT...

The tropical disturbance that made landfall in Nicaragua yesterday has moved quickly west-northwest across western Central America and southeastern Mexico... over the next 48 hours it will now arrive in the Bay of Campeche sooner with the steering during that timeframe forcing a landfall into Veracruz rather than allowing it to turn north along the Veracruz coast. As a result tropical cyclone formation appears no longer possible... see area of interest #5 section below for more information.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin... there are no additional areas of interest being monitored for tropical development.

AREA OF INTEREST #5... The new tropical low pressure rotation that made landfall in Nicaragua yesterday has zoomed west-northwest across western Central America and southeastern Mexico in the flow between rapidly intensifying eastern Pacific Hurricane Erick to the southwest and the Atlantic surface ridge to the northeast... the rapid west-northwest translation was confirmed by animation of the CIMSS 850 mb vorticity product (https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=). On both the CIMSS product and NHC TAFB surface analysis isobars... the remainder of this area of interest is now a northwest to southeast tilted elongated surface trough spanning from the Bay of Campeche to the western Caribbean waters just offshore of Belize and northwestern Honduras. Due to the initial position of this area of interest... the updated forecast track in the outlook below is adjusted accordingly and brings the centroid of this now elongated area of interest into the Bay of Campeche sooner. This will now align this area of interest with the forecast steering eastern US surface ridge (to be produced by the back convergence zone of the passing upper trough currently positioned over the central US) as its flourishing rather than retreating... forcing the area of interest to make landfall into Veracruz by 48 hours instead of being able to make a northward turn along the Veracruz coast. Even though this system will be over warm water and under the overhead upper anticyclone (featuring low shear and upper outflow) before its 48-hour landfall... Hurricane Erick will continue to be the dominant feature until its landfall/ weakening phase at 24 hours... only leaving a small time between 24 and 48 hours for this system to consolidate from an elongated surface trough to a well-defined low pressure spin... something very difficult to do. As a result I plan to remove this area of interest in future updates... this will be my final statement on this area of interest on this blog.

Regarding impact to land areas... this system may bring periods of heavy rainfall across Honduras... Guatemala... El Salvador... Belize... southern Quintana Roo... Campeche... Tabasco... Chiapas... eastern Oaxaca... and Veracruz... particularly after Hurricane Erick weakens from landfall in 24+ hours which will allow this area of interest to pull in surface inflow needed for shower and thunderstorm activity. For the south-facing eastern Pacific coasts of Chiapas... Oaxaca... and provinces located further west... please refer to National Hurricane Center products (hurricanes.gov) regarding expected impacts from eastern Pacific Hurricane Erick as this site is focused on tropical cyclone impacts from Atlantic basin systems.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 19)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeast Bay of Campeche coast near 18.5N-91.5W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 PM EDT***********************

Not in the official outlook

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

0000Z (Jun 18) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... no development shown

0000Z (Jun 18) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... no development shown

1200Z (Jun 18) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... no development shown

0600Z (Jun 18) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... no development shown

**In short-term... the upper vorticity that recently moved from the Gulf of America and into the southeastern US becomes absorbed by incoming central US upper trough... by 63 hours the upper vorticity is forced south back into the Gulf by upstream upper ridging followed by a westward turn toward Mexico in the longer range as the upstream upper ridge passes to the north... the southeastern divergence zone of the upper vorticity (when it moves into Mexico) triggers a tropical surface low in the Bay of Campeche and near 20N-95W by 144 hours... tropical low moves west-northwest toward the northern Veracruz coast through 168 hours while weakening to a surface trough