MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #17

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...MONDAY JUNE 16 2025 4:16 AM EDT...

Still watching for the possible formation of a tropical disturbance in the vicinity of Central America and western Caribbean in the days ahead... which would then track west-northwest across a swath of southeastern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche where it would have some development potential... see area of interest #5 section below for more information. Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin... there are no additional areas of interest being monitored for tropical development.

AREA OF INTEREST #5... The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a far eastern Pacific tropical low... positioned near 10N-90W as of this writing... for signs of tropical cyclone formation. Also noting the northwestern Caribbean upper vorticity is fading due to prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... which will allow for expanding upper anticyclonic outflow in the vicinity of Central America and the western Caribbean which in turn could result in a surface trough of low pressure over that area and attached to the adjacent eastern Pacific tropical system. Afterwards the surface trough and eastern Pacific tropical system move west-northwest in tandem while steered by the southwest edge of the Atlantic surface ridge. The models are currently in good agreement on the eastern Pacific tropical system making landfall on the south-facing coast of Oaxaca by day 4 which causes its demise... allowing the surface trough to potentially become the dominant system in the region as it moves across the Bay of Campeche by day 5. The track of the surface trough across the bay should continue to be west-northwest due to an additional surface ridge that builds over the eastern US in the wake of a surface frontal system/ upper trough that passes well to the north (across the Central US... Great Lakes... then Atlantic Canada)... with the additional surface ridge a manifestation of the western upper convergence zone of the passing upper trough. Upper winds in the Bay of Campeche by day 5 support possible tropical development of the surface trough as the disrupting western Gulf of America upper vortex fades due to prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... however assigning a low 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation for day 5 as the current suite of recent global model runs have a weak development signal if any.

Regarding impact to land areas... the most likely impact for the days ahead from this Atlantic basin area of interest is periods of heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential across a swath of Central America (Nicaragua... Honduras... Guatemala... El Salvador... Belize) and a swath of southeastern Mexico (southern Quintana Roo... Campeche... Tabasco... Chiapas... eastern Veracruz... eastern Oaxaca) as this area of interest tracks west-northwest across the region. Within the next 5 days... notable tropical cyclone impacts (such as gusty winds and coastal surf) are currently not likely from this Atlantic basin area of interest due to its currently low odds of tropical cyclone formation. For the south-facing eastern Pacific coasts of El Salvador... Guatemala... Chiapas... and Oaxaca ... the National Hurricane Center in their eastern Pacific tropical weather outlook is actively issuing odds of tropical cyclone formation for the above-discussed adjacent eastern Pacific tropical system... visit the National Hurricane Center site (hurricanes.gov) for up to the minute latest information on this and other eastern Pacific systems as this site is focused on tropical cyclone impacts from Atlantic basin systems.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 17)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of Nicaragua near 12N-81W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 18)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland over the eastern part of the Nicaragua/ Honduras border near 14.5N-85W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 19)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Belize near 16.5N-88.5W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 20)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern Bay of Campeche coast near 18.8N-91.5W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 21)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Bay of Campeche near 20N-94.5W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 AM EDT***********************

Not in the official outlook

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

1200Z (Jun 15) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... current far eastern Pacific tropical low becomes a tropical cyclone which then turns north and makes landfall in SE Mexico just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec at 78 hours... remnant low continues north along the Bay of Campeche Veracruz coast through 108 hours... then just inland across the province of Tamaulipas and into the Texas/Mexico border through 150 hours... tropical low then curves more northwest along an interior section of the Texas/Mexico border through 168 hours

1200Z (Jun 15) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... no development shown

1800Z (Jun 15) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... no development shown

**Through 84 hours the current upper trough over the mid-Atlantic US continues east and amplifies into a central Atlantic cut-off upper vortex due to amplification of upstream warm core upper ridging to the west associated with a central US to Great Lakes surface frontal system (the divergence zone of the central Atlantic cut-off upper vortex produces a surface frontal low)... through 135 hours the Great Lakes upper trough/ surface frontal system then moves toward Atlantic Canada and pulls the central Atlantic upper vortex and its surface frontal low northward... resulting in an expanding upper anticyclone at 30N-55W to the south of the northward-retreating upper vortex and to the north of the current upper vorticity string at 25N latitude as that upper vorticity string decays... the new upper anticyclone already produces a surface tropical low at 30N-55W by 135 hours... while drifting northeast toward the surface ridge weakness of the surface frontal system departing Atlantic Canada the surface tropical low becomes a briskly strengthening tropical cyclone that reaches 32N-50W by 168 hours

1800Z (Jun 15) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... current far eastern Pacific tropical low becomes a tropical cyclone which then turns north and makes landfall in SE Mexico just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec at 90 hours... the subsequent inland weakening of the tropical cyclone allows this area of interest to become the dominant feature in the region and develop into a western Bay of Campeche tropical low by 138 hours... the tropical low/ surface trough continues north-northwest and makes landfall in Tamaulipas by 168 hours