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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #16

  • Writer: NCHurricane2009
    NCHurricane2009
  • Jun 14
  • 5 min read

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...SATURDAY JUNE 14 2025 3:35 PM EDT...

A tropical disturbance is likely to emerge in the south-central Caribbean over the next day or so... which then tracks west-northwest across Central America... the western Caribbean... southeastern Mexico... and toward the Bay of Campeche. See area of interest #5 section below for more information. Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin... there are no additional areas of interest being monitored for tropical development.


AREA OF INTEREST #5... Overnight... shower and thunderstorm activity in the south-central Caribbean relaxed as a far eastern Pacific tropical low pressure took shape just west of Costa Rica... supported by the split flow upper divergence marked in the above birdseye view chart. It is probable the dominating surface inflow of the new eastern Pacific feature is taking away from the south-central Caribbean activity... however still watching for the formation of a separate south-central Caribbean feature over the next couple of days to be initiated by the divergence on the southeast side of the decaying northwestern Caribbean upper vorticity... followed by the collapse of the upper vorticity which will allow for expanding anticyclonic upper outflow and reduction in wind shear. Any tropical low pressure that develops in the south-central Caribbean will then track west-northwest while steered by the southwest periphery of the Atlantic surface ridge... taking it across Central America... western Caribbean waters... southeastern Mexico... and toward the Bay of Campeche. Because of the current delay in the formation of a south-central Caribbean feature (due to the dominance of the new eastern Pacific low pressure)... the positional milestones of the west-northwest track in the outlook below have been delayed to later timeframes. I have also slightly increased the north angle of the track due to the initial fujiwhara interaction this area of interest would have with the new eastern Pacific system while this area of interest tracks over Central America. In 5+ days the ongoing interaction should help pull the eastern Pacific system more north into southeastern Mexico territory just west of Guatemala... allowing the eastern Pacific system to weaken from landfall and hence allowing this area of interest to then potentially dominate as it reaches the Bay of Campeche waters.


Regarding odds of tropical cyclone formation... I have set them to a low 10% peak over the next 5 days due to the low amount of time between the formation of the south-central Caribbean tropical low pressure and its landfall with Central America by 72 hours. Their is a chance this area of interest briefly tracks over the western Caribbean waters between northwest Honduras and Belize in between the day 4 and day 5 positions... but the amount of time over water is expected to be too short for tropical development and so I keep development odds at 0% for that timeframe. I currently do not forecast tropical areas of interest beyond day 5... however can't ignore the fact that beyond day 5 another opening for development emerges when this system continues west-northwest into the Bay of Campeche waters for the following three reasons... (1) the south part of the current central US upper trough in the short-term becomes a cut-off western Gulf of America upper vortex... however the disrupting vortex decays beyond day 5 due to prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air which keeps upper winds in the Bay of Campeche favorable for development when this area of interest arrives... (2) the neighboring eastern Pacific system collapses from its forecast southeast Mexico landfall as discussed in the prior paragraph which then allows this area of interest to become the dominant feature as it moves into the Bay of Campeche... (3) the forecast track keeps this system over the Bay of Campeche long enough to allow for possible development. In short... future updates on this area of interest may require more elevated development odds for the Bay of Campeche.


Regarding impact to land areas... the most likely impact for the days ahead from this Atlantic basin area of interest is periods of heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential across a swath of Central America (Nicaragua... Honduras... Guatemala... El Salvador... Belize) and a swath of southeastern Mexico (southern Quintana Roo... Campeche... Tabasco... Chiapas... eastern Veracruz... eastern Oaxaca) as this area of interest tracks west-northwest across the region. Within the next 5 days... notable tropical cyclone impacts (such as gusty winds and coastal surf) are currently not likely from this Atlantic basin area of interest due to its currently low odds of tropical cyclone formation. For the south-facing eastern Pacific coasts of El Salvador... Guatemala... and southeastern Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec... the National Hurricane Center in their eastern Pacific tropical weather outlook is actively issuing odds of tropical cyclone formation for the new feature currently just west of Costa Rica... visit the National Hurricane Center site (hurricanes.gov) for up to the minute latest information on this and other eastern Pacific systems as this site is focused on tropical cyclone impacts from Atlantic basin systems.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 15)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south-central Caribbean near 11.5N-79W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 16)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south-central Caribbean near 12N-80.5W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 17)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (vicinity of northeast Nicaragua coast near 13N-83.5W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 18)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (north-central Honduras near 15N-86.2W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 19)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Belize near 17N-88.5W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 PM EDT***********************

Not in the official outlook


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Jun 14) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... new tropical low consolidates in the eastern Pacific waters west of Costa Rica by 30 hours... tropical low turns northwest into Mexico's south-facing Gulf of Tehuantepec coast through 108 hours while becoming a compact tropical cyclone with the remnant low then crossing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and entering the western Bay of Campeche by 126 hours... the remnant low becomes a tropical cyclone near 21.5N-96W by 132 hours... the gradually strengthening tropical cyclone curves northward into the western Gulf of America and parallel to the northeast Mexico coast through 168 hours


0000Z (Jun 14) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... no development shown


0600Z (Jun 14) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... develops into a tropical low while making landfall on the northeast Nicaragua coast at 84 hours... the tropical low quickly degenerates into a remnant trough following the landfall... the remnant trough takes on a NW/SE tilted configuration from the south-central Bay of Campeche to the southern tip of Belize by 168 hours

0600Z (Jun 14) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... new tropical low consolidates in the eastern Pacific waters west of Costa Rica by 24 hours... tropical low turns increasingly north and makes landfall just west of the Guatemala/ Mexico border at 102 hours and enters the eastern Bay of Campeche by 126 hours... becomes a large tropical cyclone near 22N-93W by 138 hours... the gradually strengthening large tropical cyclone continues north-northwest toward Texas through 168 hours

 
 
 

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