MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #15

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...FRIDAY JUNE 13 2025 3:30 PM EDT...

A tropical disturbance is likely to emerge in the south-central Caribbean over the next day or so... which then tracks west-northwest across Central America... the western Caribbean... southeastern Mexico... and toward the Bay of Campeche. See area of interest #5 section below for more information. Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin... there are no additional areas of interest being monitored for tropical development.

AREA OF INTEREST #5... Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue in the south-central Caribbean with the support of upper anticyclonic outflow in the region... however tropical development has been suppressed so far by nearby northwestern Caribbean upper vorticity that has been increasingly pushed toward the south-central Caribbean by the recently expanded southeastern US upper ridge. The upper vorticity is limiting the poleward upper outflow and increasing westerly shear toward the northern part of the south-central Caribbean. Over the next day or so the Caribbean upper vorticity is expected to collapse from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... which allows the upper anticyclonic outflow to expand in between the remainder Atlantic upper vorticity band to the east and western Gulf of America upper vortex to the northwest (the western Gulf of America upper vortex originates from the current south-central US upper trough... once it becomes trapped between the current southeastern US upper ridge and also an upstream southwestern US upper ridge). The expanding upper outflow has potential to trigger the formation of a better-defined south-central Caribbean surface tropical low pressure... which would then be steered west-northwest by the southwest periphery of the Atlantic surface ridge across Central America... western Caribbean waters... southeastern Mexico... and toward the Bay of Campeche. Note the current semi-permanent upper vortex offshore of the west Canada coast will be associated with the long-range (toward day 7) track angle across the Bay of Campeche... specifically the upper vortex will eventually send an upper trough into the central US. For now the usually more reliable CMC... GFS... ECMWF model consensus suggests the upper trough will not have enough of a southern reach to interact with this system... instead keeping the track of this system across the Bay of Campeche west-northwest when the passing upper trough's western convergence zone helps build a steering surface ridge along the US Gulf coast. The usually less reliable NAVGEM is the northern outlier that shows the upper trough has enough of a southern reach to turn this system north across the Gulf of America.

Regarding odds of tropical cyclone formation... I have set them to a low 10% peak due to the low amount of time between the formation of the south-central Caribbean tropical low pressure and its landfall with Central America by 72 hours. Note I have also lowered odds of development for June 15 to an even lower 5% as this past 1200Z GFS showed a slightly slower decay rate of the disrupting Caribbean upper vorticity. Their is a chance the tropical low briefly tracks over the western Caribbean waters between northwest Honduras and Belize around day 5... but the amount of time over water is expected to be too short for tropical development and so I keep development odds at 0% after this system's Central America landfall (days 4 and 5). I currently do not forecast tropical areas of interest beyond day 5... however can't ignore the fact that beyond day 5 another opening for development emerges when this system continues west-northwest into the Bay of Campeche waters... in future updates on this area of interest may have to issue more elevated development odds for the Bay of Campeche as upper winds remain favorable for development when the western Gulf of America upper vortex also collapses by then and as the track allows for some time over water.

Regarding impact to land areas... the most likely impact for the days ahead is periods of heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential across a swath of Central America (Nicaragua... Honduras... Guatemala... El Salvador... Belize) and a swath of southeastern Mexico (Campeche... Tabasco... Chiapas... eastern Veracruz... eastern Oaxaca) as this disturbance tracks west-northwest across the region. Notable tropical cyclone impacts (such as gusty winds and coastal surf) are currently not likely due to the currently low odds of tropical cyclone formation.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 14)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (South-Central Caribbean just north of Panama near 11N-79W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 15)... 5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (South-Central Caribbean near 11.5N-80W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 16)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (vicinity of northeast Nicaragua coast near 13N-83.5W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 17)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south-central Honduras near 14.2N-87W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jun 18)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern tip of Belize near 16N-89W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 PM EDT***********************

Not in the official outlook

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

1200Z (Jun 13) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... spends next few days moving west-northwest across Central America and southeastern Mexico before turning increasingly northwest across the western Bay of Campeche waters... possible tropical cyclone formation just offshore of northern Veracruz by 168 hours

0000Z (Jun 13) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... no development shown

1200Z (Jun 13) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... makes landfall on east coast of Nicaragua by 75 hours as a north-south surface trough axis... emerges into the waters offshore of northwestern Honduras and Belize by 111 hours while developing into a tropical low which then weakens and loses its closed circulation shortly thereafter while making landfall in Belize... no development shown through 168 hours as remains of this system continue west-northwest into coastal Veracruz as a NW/SE tilted surface trough axis

1200Z (Jun 13) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... continues west-northwest across eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras and emerges into the waters offshore of northwestern Honduras and Belize by 72 hours while developing into a closed tropical low pressure spin... while turning increasingly northwest across Belize and the western Yucatan peninsula it gradually intensifies and readily becomes a tropical cyclone while reaching the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula by 114 hours... through 168 hours moves north-northwest across the central Gulf of America and makes landfall over southwestern Louisiana as a hurricane