MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #14

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...WEDNESDAY JUNE 11 2025 11:30 PM EDT...

It appears increasingly likely that a tropical disturbance will emerge in the south-central Caribbean around 72 hours... which then tracks west-northwest across Central America... the western Caribbean... southeastern Mexico... and toward the Bay of Campeche. See area of interest #5 section below for more information.

AREA OF INTEREST #5... As of 1200Z earlier today the global models are increasingly in agreement on a tropical low pressure area materializing in the south-central Caribbean within the next few days... which then tracks west-northwest across Central America and western Caribbean waters... a swath of southeastern Mexico... and finally emerging into the Bay of Campeche in the long range. Because of the emerging model consensus and upper wind forecast which favors development potential... declaring a new tropical area of interest in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This is the fifth tropical area of interest tracked on this site this year.

Although there is upper-level anticyclonic outflow currently present in the south-central Caribbean supporting bouts of thunderstorm activity in the region... the surface tropical low pressure is not expected to materialize in the next 48 hours as the nearby northwestern Caribbean upper vorticity migrates south and squashes the outflow. Note the southward migration of the northwestern Caribbean upper vorticity is due to the westward migration of the Atlantic surface ridge as it has re-formed toward the convergence zone of the latest western Atlantic upper ridge supporting high surface pressures... the Atlantic surface ridge will now be positioned west enough to funnel warm air north across the southeastern United States which will inflate warm core upper ridging over the southeastern US... in turn the southeastern US upper ridging forces the northwestern Caribbean upper vorticity south. The Caribbean upper vorticity is then expected to collapse around 72+ hours from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... which allows the upper anticyclonic outflow to expand in between the remainder Atlantic upper vorticity band to the east and western Gulf of America upper vortex to the northwest (the western Gulf of America upper vortex originates from the current south-central US upper trough... once it becomes trapped between the amplifying southeastern US upper ridge and also upstream southwestern US upper ridging). The expanding upper outflow is the trigger for the formation of the south-central Caribbean tropical low pressure... which then is steered west-northwest by the southwest periphery of the Atlantic surface ridge across Central America... western Caribbean waters... southeastern Mexico... and toward the Bay of Campeche.

Regarding odds of tropical cyclone formation... I have set them to a low 10% peak due to the low amount of time between the formation of the south-central Caribbean tropical low pressure around 72 hours and its landfall with Central America by 96 to 120 hours. I currently do not forecast tropical areas of interest beyond day 5... however an early look beyond that time suggests the forecast track is too far south to allow for development in the western Caribbean waters offshore of Honduras and Belize because the latest track forecast only allows a very short time over those waters (the southern position of the forecast track is due to the more south position of the Caribbean upper vorticity when it collapses... which is the event that triggers the initial 72-hour position of this disturbance as discussed in the previous paragraph). In about 7+ days another opening for development emerges when this system continues west-northwest into the Bay of Campeche waters... in future updates on this area of interest may have to issue more elevated development odds for the Bay of Campeche as upper winds remain favorable for development when the western Gulf of America upper vortex also collapses by then and as the track allows for some time over water.

Regarding impact to land areas... the most likely impact for the days ahead is periods of heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential across a swath of Central America (Nicaragua... Honduras... Guatemala... El Salvador... Belize) and a swath of southeastern Mexico (Campeche... Tabasco... Chiapas... eastern Veracruz... eastern Oaxaca) as this disturbance tracks west-northwest across the region. Notable tropical cyclone impacts (such as gusty winds and coastal surf) are currently not likely due to the currently low odds of tropical cyclone formation.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 12)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (South-Central Caribbean just north of Panama near 10.5N-78.8W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 13)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (South-Central Caribbean just north of Panama near 10.5N-78.8W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 14)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (South-Central Caribbean just north of Panama near 11N-79.5W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 15)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (South-Central Caribbean east of Nicaragua near 11.5N-81W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 16)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (vicinity of northeast Nicaragua coast near 13N-84W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT***********************

Not in the official outlook

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

1200Z (Jun 11) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... no development shown

1200Z (Jun 11) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... broad tropical low materializes just east of Nicaragua from 90 to 114 hours and weakens to a surface trough while moving west-northwest and making landfall by 120 hours... north apex of surface trough develops into a tropical low just offshore of northwest Honduras and the east-facing Belize coast by 132 hours and makes landfall in Belize shortly thereafter... the western part of the remnant broad low pressure area establishes a better-defined center over the southwestern Bay of Campeche waters through 162 hours

1200Z (Jun 11) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... broad tropical low materializes east of Nicaragua by 96 hours... potentially becomes a tropical depression while making landfall on northeast coast of Nicaragua by 108 hours... remnant low maintains its definition despite landfall and on its continued west-northwest track emerges onto the northwest coast of Honduras by 135 hours... does not have time to re-develop over water as it already makes landfall on the southern Belize coast by 141 hours... remnant low continues west-northwest and reaches the eastern Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico by 165 hours

1200Z (Jun 11) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... caribbean broad tropical low materializes offshore of Costa Rica by 114 hours with a competing eastern Pacific low pressure circulation also materializing around that time... the Caribbean broad tropical low is flung northwest across northeastern Nicaragua... eastern Honduras... and into the waters offshore of Belize through 156 hours while flung by the competing eastern Pacific circulation... the Caribbean tropical low then continues west-northwest across Belize and northern Guatemala through 168 hours while the competing eastern Pacific circulation becomes a tropical cyclone to the southwest of the Guatemala/Mexico border