MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #13

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...TUESDAY JUNE 10 2025 8:42 AM EDT...

There are currently no areas of interest for tropical development in the Atlantic basin. However the next area of interest could emerge in the Caribbean waters just north of Honduras and east of Belize in a few days... more details in the paragraph below:

A lengthy band of upper vorticity remains in place across the Atlantic basin... extending from the northwestern Caribbean east-northeast for several hundred miles toward the waters offshore of the Iberian peninsula of Europe. The northwestern Caribbean portion of the upper vorticity band is already beginning to weaken due to prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... which is allowing for expanding upper ridging currently positioned toward the coast of Colombia. This upper ridging will continue to expand northwest toward the Caribbean coast of Central America in the days ahead as the northwest Caribbean upper vorticity collapses... the low shear and upper outflow environment beneath the ridging could allow for a surface tropical low pressure area with some development potential. Such a tropical low pressure area would track west-northwest around the southwest periphery of the ongoing Atlantic deep-layer ridge... if its well-defined center consolidates further south the track would be across Central America which would prevent tropical development. If its well-defined center consolidates further north... the west-northwest track would take it into the Caribbean waters just offshore of the north-facing Honduras coast and east-facing Belize coast which could result in a short-lived tropical cyclone before a Belize landfall. As such waiting to see the initial position of a well-defined tropical low pressure area before declaring an area of interest in the region (if an area of interest declared... will begin issuing tropical cyclone formation probabilities).

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

0000Z (Jun 10) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)

0000Z (Jun 10) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)

0000Z (Jun 10) GFS Model Run...

**Broad tropical low develops along the northwest coast of Honduras by 132 hours... slowly drifts west into southern Belize through 168 hours and the lowest area of surface pressures transitions to being in the eastern Pacific just southwest of Guatemala

0000Z (Jun 10) NAVGEM Model Run...

**Broad tropical low develops in the south-central Caribbean just offshore of Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua by 72 hours and while moving west-northwest develops a better-defined center just offshore of the Nicaragua/Honduras border by 126 hours... the tropical low continues west-northwest toward northern Belize through 168 hours with possible tropical cyclone formation