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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #12

  • Writer: NCHurricane2009
    NCHurricane2009
  • Jun 9
  • 2 min read

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...MONDAY JUNE 9 2025 2:14 AM EDT...

There are currently no areas of interest for tropical development in the Atlantic basin. However an opening for development may be possible toward the Caribbean coast of Central America in a few days... more details in the next paragraph:


The cut-off upper vorticity in the northwestern Caribbean has merged with the trans-Atlantic upper vorticity band to the east... resulting in a lengthy area of westerly shearing upper winds from the Caribbean to eastern Atlantic tropical latitudes that are inhibiting tropical development potential. The northwestern Caribbean portion of the upper vorticity band is forecast to fade over the next few days due to prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... which could result in an expanding upper ridge (featuring low shear and outflow) toward the Caribbean coast of Central America that expands in the wake of the collapsing upper vorticity. In the long range the GFS and NAVGEM suggest possible tropical development under the expanding upper ridge... however awaiting another usually more reliable model to join the GFS before declaring a tropical area of interest (with tropical cyclone formation probabilities) in the Caribbean... may also declare such an area of interest in future updates should satellite observations at the time warrant.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


1200Z (Jun 8) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


1200Z (Jun 8) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


0000Z (Jun 9) GFS Model Run...

**Broad tropical low develops along north coast of Honduras by 147 hours and drifts west further inland into interior Guatemala through 168 hours

1800Z (Jun 8) NAVGEM Model Run...

***Broad tropical low develops in the central Caribbean by 132 hours near 15N-79W... tropical low continues west-northwest into the waters just offshore of the north-facing Honduras coast through 168 hours

 
 
 

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