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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #11

  • Writer: NCHurricane2009
    NCHurricane2009
  • Jun 8
  • 2 min read

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...SUNDAY JUNE 8 2025 4:33 AM EDT...

There are currently no areas of interest for tropical development in the Atlantic basin as conditions are hostile for development... however an opening for development may be possible toward the Caribbean coast of Central America in the longer range... more details in the next paragraph:


Conditions are hostile for tropical development in the eastern part of the Atlantic basin due to dry Saharan air and westerly wind shear as marked in the above birdseye view chart. Further west... in the Caribbean Sea... westerly shear is present across the central and eastern Caribbean and upper outflow is suppressed in the northwestern Caribbean due to upper vorticity that remains in place. The cold core upper vorticity is forecast to fade from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... and there is an increasing signal in the models that an expanding upper ridge (featuring low shear and outflow) materializes toward the Caribbean coast of Central America in the wake of the collapsing upper vorticity in about a week from today. If these trends continue... may have to declare an area of interest in the vicinity of the Caribbean Central America coast in future updates.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Jun 8) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


1200Z (Jun 7) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


0000Z (Jun 8) GFS Model Run...

**Broad tropical low develops along north coast of Honduras by 153 hours and is quasi-stationary through 168 hours while slowly organizing

0000Z (Jun 8) NAVGEM Model Run...

**Broad tropical low develops in south-central Caribbean (east of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border region) by 126 hours... possible tropical cyclone formation as tropical low moves northwest through 168 hours toward the Central American coast at the Nicaragua/Honduras border

 
 
 

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