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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #10

  • Writer: NCHurricane2009
    NCHurricane2009
  • Jun 6
  • 2 min read

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...FRIDAY JUNE 6 2025 10:30 PM EDT...

There are currently no areas of interest for tropical development in the Atlantic basin as conditions are hostile for development... however an opening for development may be possible toward the Caribbean coast of Central America in the longer range... more details in the next paragraph:


Conditions are hostile for tropical development in the eastern part of the Atlantic basin due to dry Saharan air and westerly wind shear as marked in the above birdseye view chart. Further west... in the Caribbean Sea... the southern part of the upper trough that recently emerged from Florida is suppressing tropical development potential in the near term. Split flow upper divergence between the west side of this upper trough and east end of the Mexico upper ridge cell will tend to produce thunderstorms across Central America and far eastern Pacific. Any tropical development in the region in the days ahead is therefore more likely in the eastern Pacific rather than the Caribbean... however should the upper trough weaken faster as this past 1800Z GFS model run suggested upper winds favoring tropical development could also be in place in the vicinity of the Caribbean coast of Central America by day 7.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


1200Z (Jun 6) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


1200Z (Jun 6) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


1800Z (Jun 6) GFS Model Run...

**Surface pressures drop in the south-central Caribbean... just offshore of Nicaragua... by 168 hours

1200Z (Jun 6) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)

 
 
 

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