*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...SUNDAY JUNE 2 2024 10:10 PM EDT...

Much of the upper trough/surface frontal system in the western Atlantic has consolidated into a deep-layer low pressure system just offshore of Atlantic Canada. The location of the deep-layer low is north of previous forecasts... and is over waters too cool to support transition of this system into tropical. Further south... a portion of the western Atlantic upper trough has been left offshore of southeastern Florida. Divergence on the east side of this upper trough fragment is supporting showers and thunderstorms across the southeastern Bahamas and over nearby northern Caribbean Islands. Going forward the upper trough fragment offshore of southeastern Florida will soon merge with the upper trough currently approaching from the southeastern United States... and any tropical disturbance that emerges near the southeastern Bahamas will accelerate east-northeast across the western Atlantic while transitioning into a system supported by the divergence zone of the merged upper trough. Tropical development of such a disturbance is unlikely as models continue to agree that the merged upper trough will be low in amplitude such that excess westerly shear unfavorable to tropical development will also exist in the trough's divergence zone.
For the eastern and central tropical Atlantic... a surface tropical wave of low pressure that was near 55W longitude has recently crossed the Lesser Antilles island chain and into the eastern Caribbean Sea. An additional tropical wave is currently at 47W longitude... and another wave which emerged from Africa within the last 48 hours is currently at 30W longitude. These waves were once unusually vigorous in late May (unusually vigorous for so early in the hurricane season) while each having a distinct thunderstorm cluster at some point... but have since succumbed to westerly vertical shear and dry Saharan air. However another unusually-vigorous wave is currently located in the far eastern tropical Atlantic... in the vicinity of 7.5N-17.5W... while featuring cyclonically curved bands of showers and thunderstorms. Through June 5th the shearing central Atlantic upper trough is forecast to weaken into a string of upper vorticity while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air... and recent model runs continue trending with a weaker string of upper vorticity for the longer range. Therefore if the pattern of unusually vigorous tropical waves continues... and if the dry Saharan air layer is weak enough in the days ahead... may have to watch for unusually early tropical development in the eastern or central tropical Atlantic around June 5th or later.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Jun 2) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Jun 2) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Jun 2) GFS Model Run...
**Tropical wave currently at 7.5N-17.5W develops into a tropical low near 7.8N-53.5W (offshore of French Guiana) by 168 hours
1200Z (Jun 2) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)
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