*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...THURSDAY AUGUST 22 2024 10:52 PM EDT...

Within the next few days... the area in the Atlantic basin that is the most likely to see possible tropical development remains the Gulf of Mexico as follows:
A large tropical wave of low pressure is continuing west across the eastern tropical Atlantic and as of this writing is crossing 32.5W longitude. Tropical cyclone formation of this feature is not expected as it continues to be embedded in a surge of dry Saharan air. Further east... satellite imagery over Africa (https://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG) shows another large tropical wave of low pressure... featuring curved thunderstorm bands... now over central Africa. However upper-level winds across the tropical latitudes of the Atlantic... when this wave later departs Africa in about three days... are currently forecast to be less conducive for tropical development as follows... (1) an Icelandic cold core upper vortex has coalesced in association with the cold sector of the current large surface frontal cyclone which is affecting northwestern Europe... (2) a portion of the cold core upper vortex... plus a portion of the current eastern Atlantic upper vorticity... by days 3 and 4 is currently forecast to be pushed south into the Atlantic tropics by the current central Atlantic upper ridge where the upper vorticity will tend to suppress upper outflow needed for tropical development. Therefore this tropical wave is also not forecast to undergo tropical development when it later reaches the tropical Atlantic.
The upper trough currently over the eastern United States for the next few days is forecast to dive south into the Gulf of Mexico... then west across the Gulf as an upper vortex... while continuing to anticyclonically revolve around the steering central North America upper ridge. In the days ahead will watch to see if divergence between the periphery of the forecast upper vortex and surrounding upper flow results in a tropical disturbance in Gulf of Mexico. Any disturbance that does develop is likely to shift west toward the Texas coast as steering surface ridging remains intact to the north of the Gulf... supported by the convergence zone of high-latitude upper troughs expected pass to the north of the central North America upper ridge. Note recent CMC and GFS model runs are beginning to pick up on possible Gulf development in the days ahead... see the CMC and GFS model runs in the computer model summary section below for examples.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Aug 22) CMC Model Run...
**Divergence between southwest side of south-diving eastern US shortwave upper trough and southeast side of central North America upper ridge produces a surface trough offshore of southeastern Louisiana at 42 hours... surface trough continues westward into south Texas coast by 72+ hours which ends tropical development potential (before landfall briefly closes into a surface low at 54 hours)
**Above-mentioned shortwave upper trough begins retrograding west across the Gulf of Mexico as an upper vortex in 4+ days... north side of large tropical wave currently crossing the central Caribbean interacts with eastern divergence zone of upper vortex to evolve into a west Gulf surface trough by 108 hours... becomes a surface low just offshore of the south Texas coast by 126 hours which makes landfall on the coast just after 144 hours
**Portion of eastern Atlantic upper vorticity currently southeast of the Azores becomes pushed south into the Atlantic tropics by the central Atlantic upper ridge through 90 hours after which time the upper vorticity continues west on the south side of the upper ridge as an inverted upper trough... divergence on the west side of the inverted upper trough produces a tropical low near 12.5N-36W by 138 hours... while drifting only slowly west the tropical low forecast to become a tropical cyclone near 12.5N-37W by 168 hours
1200Z (Aug 22) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)
1800Z (Aug 22) GFS Model Run...
**South-diving shortwave upper trough over eastern US eventually retrogrades west across the Gulf of Mexico as an upper vortex after 45 hours while pushed around the central North America upper ridge... upper vortex makes landfall on the Texas coast at 90 hours while then moving northwest toward high-latitude upper trough but then becomes quasi-stationary over Texas while missing exit with upper trough... the southeastern divergence zone of quasi-stationary upper vortex produces offshore northwestern Gulf of Mexico surface low by 141 hours... the upper vortex slowly shifts east toward the TX/LA border region through 168 hours while pushed by next mid-latitude upper trough which allows east side of the upper vortex to pull the surface low north toward the southwest Louisiana coast through 168 hours
1800Z (Aug 22) NAVGEM Model Run...
**Model run not available at above-mentioned source
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