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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #7

Writer's picture: NCHurricane2009NCHurricane2009

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...SATURDAY JUNE 1 2024 1:09 PM EDT...

The Atlantic Hurricane Season has officially begun today... therefore at this point will be issuing daily updates on the Atlantic tropics until the season ends in November.


In the western Atlantic a large scale upper trough and surface frontal system has recently moved into the region from eastern North America. Divergence ahead of the upper trough has induced a surface trough in the vicinity of Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas... and has enhanced thunderstorms of a surface tropical wave of low pressure currently moving into the Caribbean waters between Nicaragua and Jamaica. Any tropical disturbance that develops in the central Caribbean and/or southeastern Bahamas will be accelerated northeastward across the western Atlantic in 48+ hours by the currently approaching central US upper trough when it later moves offshore. This upper trough will be too low in amplitude such that excess westerly shear would inhibit tropical development of any disturbance that moves northeast across the western Atlantic.


The northern part of the aforementioned western Atlantic large scale upper trough and surface frontal system is forecast to evolve into a cut-off deep-layer low pressure in the northwest Atlantic. Although thermodynamic instability may be achieved as the upper layers of the deep-layer circulation are forecast to be cold while parked toward warmer Gulf stream waters... transition of the deep-layer low into a tropical system is not expected as the upper-layers of the circulation merge with the current deep-layer low northwest of the Azores... resulting in a lack of a focused upper divergence zone needed for a well-defined northwest Atlantic surface center that would be required for tropical development.


For the eastern and central tropical Atlantic... surface tropical waves of low pressure are present at 55W longitude and at 35W longitude as of this writing. Satellite imagery over the last 24 hours also suggests another tropical wave has recently emerged from the west coast of Africa and into the eastern tropical Atlantic. These waves were once unusually robust for late May while each having a well-defined thunderstorm cluster... recently these waves have become weaker and more seasonable while succumbing to westerly wind shear imparted by the current central Atlantic upper trough and regional dry Saharan air. Through June 5th the models show the shearing central Atlantic upper trough weakening while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air... and this would be the best time for any of these unusually-robust waves to develop in the central or eastern tropical Atlantic in June... earlier than normal in the Atlantic hurricane season. This would also require the dry Saharan air to abate which is not guaranteed. After that time the forecast northwest Atlantic deep-layer low pressure system mentioned in the previous paragraph is forecast to pump warm air into the mid-latitudes of the central Atlantic... resulting in a warm core upper ridge that pushes the remnants of the central Atlantic upper trough into the central and eastern tropical Atlantic where they would suppress tropical activity as a string of upper vorticity promoting overhead upper convergence. Some of today's model runs suggest the string of upper vorticity after June 5th may end up being weaker than previous forecasts... potentially extending the window of favorable upper winds after June 5th. Given the narrow window of favorable atmospheric conditions toward June 5th (and uncertainty of how favorable the upper winds would be after June 5th)... and possible dry Saharan air... not declaring any areas of interest for the eastern or central tropical Atlantic at this time.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Jun 1) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)


0000Z (Jun 1) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)


0600Z (Jun 1) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)


0600Z (Jun 1) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)

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