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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #64

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...SATURDAY AUGUST 10 2024 6:24 PM EDT...

See areas of interest #16 and #17 sections below for more information on a pair of tropical waves of low pressure being monitored for possible development in the days ahead... area of interest #16 may bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Veracruz and Tamaulipas tomorrow... area of interest #17 may impact the northeastern Caribbean Islands with possibly severe tropical cyclone impacts by the middle of this upcoming week.


AREA OF INTEREST #16... The tropical wave of low pressure that was previously crossing western Central America has continued on across southeastern Mexico and eastern Pacific… however the wave has left behind a surface trough of low pressure that has continued northwest from Honduras and into the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula… and recently the trough has entered the eastern Bay of Campeche. This system is expected to curve northwest then north across the Bay and  far western Gulf of Mexico while rounding the southwest side of the North America surface ridge now build behind ex-Debby and current east Canada frontal low. Updated forecast track in the outlook below is similar to the previous but adjusted northward due to the current position of the surface trough relative to the prior forecast. This system appears to have a narrow window of time to develop before the current southeastern US suppressing upper vorticity drifts south into it under the influence of the ongoing southwestern US upper ridge… and I only assess a low 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation. After having a round of thunderstorms over the western Yucatan peninsula last night this system has seen a relaxation in thunderstorms today. However  northern Veracruz and Tamaulipas may see heavy rainfall and gusty winds from this system should it redevelop another widespread round of thunderstorms later this weekend. South Texas appears unlikely to see activity from this disturbance as the aforementioned suppressing upper vorticity rolls over this disturbance by Monday.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 12 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 11)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 21N-94W)

IOH 36 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 12)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of Tamaulipas near 23.8N-97W)

IOH 60 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 13)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of the Texas/Mexico border near 26.2N-97W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 PM EDT**************************

Not in the official outlook


AREA OF INTEREST #17... Continuing to monitor the eastern Atlantic tropical wave… now in the central tropical Atlantic… for tropical cyclone formation. Not much has changed regarding the upper-level wind outlook and steering factors that will influence its health and guide it toward the northeastern Caribbean Islands in the next five days… see area of interest #17 section in previous post #63 for details (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-63). The circulation that is on the southeast side of this system was hanging out near 11N-40W through 1200Z… and has continued to become better organized today… therefore I have raised my peak odds of tropical cyclone formation to 90% in this update… especially as the cut-off upper vorticity mentioned in post #63 is forecast to dissipate by day 5 which will keep shear low and outflow high over this system. Interests in the northern Lesser Antilles... Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico should be monitoring the progress of this tropical wave as potentially severe tropical cyclone impacts from this system are possible by the middle part of this upcoming week.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Aug 11)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-44.5W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Aug 12)... 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 13N-49W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Aug 13)... 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of the Lesser Antilles near 14N-54W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1200Z Aug 14)… 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just east of the northern Lesser Antilles near 15.5N-59W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1200Z Aug 15)… 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just northeast of the Virgin Islands and just northwest of the Lesser Antilles near 19N-64W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 PM EDT**************************

Formation chance through 48 hours... 40%

Formation chance through 7 days... 80%


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


1200Z (Aug 9) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #16... no development shown

**For area of interest #17... tropical cyclone formation suggested near 15.5N-45W at 60 hours and passes just northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles as a possibly strong tropical cyclone at 120 hours… turns north into the waters southeast of Bermuda and reaches 28N-61.5W at 168 hours

**Vigorous tropical wave emerges from western Africa at 18 hours and crosses the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 60 hours as a broad tropical low... broad tropical low opens back to a wave shortly thereafter with no development shown thereafter.


1200Z (Aug 9) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #16... no development shown

**For area of interest #17... organizes into a tropical low that moves into the northern Lesser Antilles by 96 hours which then becomes a tropical cyclone while moving west-northwest across Puerto Rico at 114 hours… gains hurricane strength through 144 hours while curving northwest offshore of the north Dominican Republic coast and east of the southeastern Bahamas… reaches 24N-71W by 168 hours

**Vigorous tropical wave of low pressure emerges from west coast of Africa at 18 hours and passes over the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 54 hours as a broad tropical low... tropical low weakens back to wave in open central tropical Atlantic at 90+ hours with no development shown thereafter

**Additional vigorous tropical wave of low pressure emerges from western Africa at 126 hours and passes over the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands as a broad tropical low at 150 hours… broad tropical low continues west-southwest away from islands through 168 hours


1800Z (Aug 9) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #16... no development shown

**For area of interest #17... tropical cyclone formation suggested east of the northern Lesser Antilles at 78 hours which passes across the islands by 90 hours… tropical cyclone passes just south of Puerto Rico through 111 hours and then turns northwest into the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic by 123 hours… tropical cyclone continues northwest into the southeastern Bahamas through 144 hours… curves north into the waters north of the southeastern Bahamas through 168 hours

**Vigorous tropical wave of low pressure emerges from west coast of Africa at 12 hours and passes over the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands as a broad tropical low by 48 hours… tropical low weakens back to wave in open central tropical Atlantic at 99+ hours with no development shown thereafter

**Additional vigorous tropical wave of low pressure emerges from western Africa at 120 hours and passes just south of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 156 hours… broad tropical low positioned southwest of the islands by 168 hours


1800Z (Aug 9) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #16... no development shown

**For area of interest #17... tropical cyclone formation suggested east of the northern Lesser Antilles at 102 hours whose center passes just north of the Lesser Antilles while still a weak tropical cyclone by 120 hours… weak tropical cyclone centered east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas by 168 hours

**Strong tropical wave emerges from western Africa at 18 hours and moves into the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands by 54 hours as a broad tropical low... broad tropical low becomes quasi-stationary thereafter through 168 hours while merging with additional large wave that emerges from Africa… however west side of broad tropical low fractures off into a separate tropical low located near 15.5N-35.5W at 162 hours

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