******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...MONDAY JULY 29 2024 10:40 PM EDT...
For the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic basin... the upper vortex and associated surface frontal low that was in the northwestern Atlantic have made landfall across the northeastern United States and is no longer a tropical area of interest... see area of interest #13 section below for more information. Noting that a pattern of divergence ahead of upper vorticity trailing from the upper vortex has produced a second frontal low that is now northwest of Bermuda… and this feature will be heading north-northeast toward Nova Scotia in the next 36 hours while moving around the steering Atlantic surface ridge. Although this frontal low is currently over warm waters and will be heading toward the low shear/outflow of the current northwest Atlantic surface ridge… its window of time for tropical development is running out as it will soon reach cooler waters and it has not developed much thunderstorm activity so far. Thus this second frontal low is not an area of interest for tropical development.
See area of interest #14 section below for an update on the current central Atlantic tropical disturbance that will be moving toward the northern Caribbean Islands and Bahamas in the days ahead while upper winds over it potentially become more conducive for its development.
AREA OF INTEREST #13... The upper vortex and associated surface frontal low that were in the northwestern Atlantic over the weekend have made landfall on the northeastern United States coast. The surface low was difficult to see on satellite imagery as the shower and thunderstorm activity in the region was wrapped around the upper vortex center... indicating the upper vortex was more dominant relative to the surface low. However during the day on Monday true color visible satellite imagery showed the surface low made landfall over southwestern Maine as a cloud swirl while the area of curved rain bands that was over Massachusetts... Connecticut... and Rhode Island this morning and early afternoon was associated with the upper vortex. The upper vortex continues to be pulled north by the upper vorticity approaching from the Great Lakes region of North America while the surface low over southwest Maine began to turn northwestward toward the core of the upper vortex on visible satellite animation (before sunset). Previously the surface low stayed alive while arcing northward along the east periphery of the upper vortex where supportive upper divergence exists... but with the recent northwestward turn the surface low is finally being pulled toward the core of the upper vortex which will be just west of the Maine/Canada border in 12 hours. The surface low is expected to dissipate by that time due to the lack of divergence beneath the core of the upper vortex... and this system is no longer a tropical area of interest while having lifted northward away from warm waters and into land over much of the last 24 hours... as such this is my final statement on this area of interest on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 12 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 30)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland just west of the Maine/Canada border near 46.8N-71W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************
Not in the official outlook
AREA OF INTEREST #14... A complex disturbance continues in the central tropical Atlantic consisting of a pre-existing spin near 11N-50W that is merging with a broad tropical wave incoming from the northeast… previous post #52 has more information on the origins of the pre-existing spin (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-52). Early today the spin had a small clump of thunderstorms just west of its swirl center which has since fizzled due to the approach of the suppressing inverted upper trough to the east and dry Saharan air brought in by the broad wave from the northeast. Because the spin lacks thunderstorms… I expect it to not develop further in the short-term and instead lose its identity within the broad tropical wave… with the broad wave continuing on to the west across the Lesser Antilles and into the central Caribbean region through day 5 while pushed by the Atlantic surface ridge. By day 5 the current upper trough moving into western Canada generates an expansive eastern North America surface frontal system… with this area of interest potentially bending more north in track toward the surface ridge weakness associated with the frontal system.
Over the next 72 hours the broad surface tropical wave should remain suppressed while the inverted upper trough incoming from the east merges with the current cut-off upper vorticity to the northwest… as a result impacts to the Lesser Antilles from the broad wave should be minimal. Beyond that time models are in disagreement at the rate at which the upper vorticity collapses from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air into one area of upper vorticity toward Central America and another area of upper vorticity in the mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic. The GFS and NAVGEM which do not develop the broad wave show a slower decay of the upper vorticity… while the ECMWF and CMC are faster with the decay and toward day 7 want to develop the north side of the wave (in the vicinity of Cuba or the Bahamas) in an area of upper outflow between the two pieces of decaying upper vorticity. For now assign a low 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation by day 5 as this is when the upper vorticity begins to break up… and around this time the north side of the broad wave may begin to bring heavy rainfall across Jamaica… Haiti… eastern Cuba… and southeastern Bahamas as the upper winds potentially become more favorable. Note my outlook ends at day 5 as I currently do not do outlooks for areas of interest beyond that timeframe… however if I did do a 7-day outlook for this particular situation I would likely select odds of tropical cyclone formation below the NHC’s current 50% as not all the models agree that the upper winds will become favorable enough for tropical development as discussed above.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 30)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of the southern Lesser Antilles near 12N-55W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 31)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Lesser Antilles near 13N-60.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 1)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern Caribbean Sea near 14N-66W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 2)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Caribbean Sea near 15.5N-71.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 3)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeast of Jamaica near 16.5N-75.5W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 0%
Formation chance through 7 days... 50%
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
0000Z (Jul 29) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #13... dissipates over southwestern Maine coast just after 18 hours
**For area of interest #14... passes over the northern Lesser Antilles by 60 hours as an amplified wave… the amplified wave crosses the remainder of the northern Caribbean Islands (Virgin Islands… Puerto Rico… Haiti... Dominican Republic... and Cuba) through 126 hours while slowly becoming a broad tropical low... the tropical low develops a better-defined center over the western Florida Keys by 138 hours and becomes a tropical depression just offshore of Port Charlotte Florida while turning north-northwest parallel to the Florida peninsula west coast... approaches the far eastern Florida panhandle coast as a strengthening tropical storm by 168 hours
0000Z (Jul 29) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #13... dissipates over southwestern Maine coast at 18 hours
**For area of interest #14... passes over the northern Lesser Antilles by 60 hours as an amplified wave and develops into a tropical low over the central Bahamas at 120 hours... develops into a tropical depression over the northwestern Bahamas at 138 hours which subsequently turns north toward the Carolina coast through 168 hours while strengthening into a tropical storm
0600Z (Jul 29) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #13... dissipates on the northeastern US coast at the Maine/New Hampshire border at 12 hours
**For area of interest #14... no development shown
0600Z (Jul 29) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #13... dissipates inland over southwestern Maine just after 12 hours
**For area of interest #14... no development shown
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