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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #45

Writer's picture: NCHurricane2009NCHurricane2009

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...FRIDAY JULY 19 2024 1:51 PM EDT...

Tropical activity in the Atlantic basin remains calm due to higher concentrations of dry Saharan air toward the east and pockets of suppressing cut-off upper vorticity across the western half of the basin. Through the next seven days the western cut-off upper vorticity is expected to generally decay due to prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... allowing for the ongoing eastern Atlantic tropical upper ridging to expand westward into the eastern Caribbean. In addition the warm surface southerly flow ahead of the next slow-moving frontal system that will settle into central North America is forecast to promote warm core upper ridging across the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern United States... with whatever remaining of the decaying upper vorticity lingering across the western and central Caribbean through day 7 while sandwiched between the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Caribbean upper ridging. Therefore tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the western and central Caribbean over the next week... and for the next few days models are not showing Atlantic tropical development beneath the upper ridging forecast elsewhere in the Atlantic basin perhaps while projecting that dry Saharan air will continue to blanket the region.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Jul 19) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


0000Z (Jul 19) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


0600Z (Jul 19) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


0600Z (Jul 19) NAVGEM Model Run...

**Model run not available at above-mentioned source

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