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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #43

  • Writer: NCHurricane2009
    NCHurricane2009
  • Jul 16, 2024
  • 2 min read

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...TUESDAY JULY 16 2024 2:40 PM EDT...


The Atlantic tropics remain largely absent of thunderstorm activity... like due to stabilization provided by an ongoing outbreak of dry Saharan air. In addition pockets of suppressing cut-off upper vorticity in the western half of the Atlantic basin will persist over the next few days... albeit upper ridging more conducive to tropical activity will expand in the Caribbean region by day 5 as the upper vorticity gradually decays from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air. However none of the models are picking up on development underneath the forecast Caribbean upper ridging... nor underneath the persisting eastern Atlantic/Africa upper ridging... perhaps while projecting that dry Saharan air will continue to blanket the region (for instance a wave of dry Saharan air can be seen as a beige tint as far west as the western Caribbean... in between Jamaica and Central America... and that may continue in the days ahead).


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Jul 16) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


0000Z (Jul 16) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Jul 16) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Jul 16) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)

 
 
 

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