*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...SUNDAY JULY 14 2024 4:30 PM EDT...
For the eastern and central Bahamas… the surface trough of low pressure that formed over the Dominican Republic yesterday is now passing over the Bahamas island chain… with the north end of a tropical wave of low pressure (currently over the Dominican Republic) following closely behind. Although this disturbance remains in an area of light shear and upper outflow between two lobes of upper vorticity to the west and east… its thunderstorms have weakened while it appears some dry Saharan air from the east has caught up to the disturbance. Because the disturbance will remain under favorable upper winds as it continues west-northwest across the Bahamas… south Florida… and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico… in the days ahead will watch to see if it later develops into an area of interest.
A vigorous tropical wave of low pressure in the open central Atlantic is near 10N-45W as of this writing… however the north side of the wave is covered in suppressing dry Saharan air. In addition upper-level winds over this system are forecast to become less conducive for its development as a new upper vortex to the east and some mid-latitude upper vorticity to the northeast are forecast to chase the tropical wave while pushed by mid-latitude upper ridging… with the convergent west side of the incoming upper vorticity suppressing this wave over time.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
0000Z (Jul 14) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Jul 14) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
0600Z (Jul 14) GFS Model Run...
**Tropical wave initialized at 0 hours near 10N-42W as a multi-center tropical low... tropical low drifts north to 14N-44W through 36 hours while dissipating
0600Z (Jul 14) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
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