*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...SATURDAY JULY 13 2024 2:02 PM EDT...

See area of interest #11 section below for a final statement on the elongated surface trough of low pressure that has recently made landfall across the southeastern United States.
Elsewhere... a strong pulse of thunderstorm activity within the last 24 hours flared up across the Lesser Antilles... Virgin Islands... Puerto Rico... and has recently gained concentration northeast of the Dominican Republic. The origin of this thunderstorm activity appears upper-level in nature... as early as July 4th in the open central tropical Atlantic an inverted upper trough was in the upper-level wind field on the south side of what was the regional tropical upper ridge axis... this part of the tropical upper ridge had been eroded by mid-latitude central Atlantic upper vorticity and perhaps the low-latitude inverted upper trough was a manifestation of the local upper ridge erosion. The inverted upper trough then continued slowly west while pushed by the tropical upper ridge and by Friday was crossing the Lesser Antilles and entering the eastern Caribbean... with the pulse of thunderstorms flaring up in an area of divergence between the east side of the inverted upper trough and west side of an expanding upper ridge cell to the east. Recently the inverted upper trough has merged with mid-latitude upper vorticity to the northwest... however the thunderstorms currently northeast of the Dominican Republic have an opportunity to evolve into a tropical disturbance while in an area of light shear and upper outflow in between the mid-latitude upper vorticity to the northwest and mid-latitude upper vorticity to the northeast as both waves of mid-latitude upper vorticity retrograde westward... with upper-level winds potentially becoming even more conducive for development as the western wave of mid-latitude upper vorticity decays with time from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air. Any tropical disturbance that does develop would move west-northwest across the Bahamas... south Florida... and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico while rounding the southwest side of the Atlantic surface ridge. Not declaring an area of interest as their is no surface low pressure spin aligned with the thunderstorms at this time and computer models are not showing development... currently at the surface their is a tropical wave of low pressure approaching the thunderstorms from the southeast (from Puerto Rico) and the CIMSS 850 mb vorticity product shows a new spin over the Dominican Republic but southwest of the thunderstorms (https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=). However if model support develops and/or a surface low pressure area becomes more aligned with the thunderstorms... will be declaring an area of interest in future updates.
AREA OF INTEREST #11... The elongated surface low pressure field that was offshore of the southeastern United States made landfall by Friday afternoon and evening while the lowest surface pressures continued to be analyzed toward the Georgia/South Carolina border region. The northeastern part of the surface low pressure field took advantage of outflow beneath the regional upper ridge... resulting in thunderstorms and heavy rainfall that was weighted across the Carolinas during the latter part of Friday. Although that activity has since fizzled... a renewed band of activity has setup in the vicnity of the coastal Carolinas this morning while still taking advantage of the outflow supplied by the regional upper ridge. However tropical cyclone formation is no longer possible as the band of low surface pressures is now inland.
The northern part of the Great Lakes upper trough will continue east while the remainder tail end of the upper trough stays trapped over the south-central US. The western convergence zone of the northern upper trough fragment will continue to maintain the nearby surface ridge to the northwest... therefore the inland remnant surface trough of low pressure of this area of interest will linger as a quasi-stationary feature trapped between the northwestern surface ridge and Atlatnic surface ridge to the east... with the lingering surface trough supported by the eastern divergence zone of the trapped south-central US upper trough. This is my final statement on this area of interest as tropical development is no longer possible.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 14)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northern Georgia/South Carolina border near 33.8N-82.5W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 PM EDT**************************
Not in the official outlook
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
0000Z (Jul 13) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Jul 13) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
0600Z (Jul 13) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
0600Z (Jul 13) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical development shown in Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)
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