*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...SUNDAY JULY 7 2024 10:30 AM EDT...
See Beryl section below for more information on the tropical storm expected to roll into Texas within the next 24 hours while it likely re-intensifies into a hurricane. See area of interest #10 section below for an update on the western Caribbean tropical wave of low pressure following behind Beryl. Elsewhere... a surge of dry Saharan air is keeping the Atlantic tropics calm in the wake of these two systems.
TROPICAL STORM BERYL... Beryl has been making its gradual northward turn across the western Gulf of Mexico in deep-layer southerly flow on the east side of the upper vortex now over northeastern Mexico and out ahead of the upper trough and surface frontal system approaching from central North America. The updated track forecast below is nudged east compared to the previous as the northward turn has occurred more sharply. Regarding intensity... Beryl has not yet strengthened since it entered the Gulf of Mexico due to southerly shear applied by the aforementioned upper vortex... and given that Beryl only intermittently fired thunderstorms near its center instead of consistently doing so over much of the last 24 hours it appears dry air produced by convergence beneath the upper vortex was being ingested by Beryl. Recently the upper vortex has moved westward and away from the storm while pushed by the upper ridge that has made its way into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from the southeastern US... as such the negative effects of the vortex upon Beryl are reducing and thunderstorm activity has recently increased across the entire circulation of Beryl. Therefore Beryl is still expected to re-intensify into a hurricane in the next 24 hours and before it makes landfall on the Texas coast... however the intensity forecast is nudged downward as Beryl failed to intensifity in the previous 24 hours. Beyond 24 hours Beryl is expected to turn northeast across a swath of the interior eastern US from eastern Texas while transitioning into a remnant frontal low supported by the eastern divergence zone of the incoming central North America upper trough.
Preparations for tropical storm to hurricane force coastal surf and wind from the Texas/Mexico border to San Luis Pass Texas should be finishing as the circulation of Beryl is moving into the region. Also note coastal surf will be present across northeastern Tamaulipas today... with surf reaching as far east as southwestern Louisiana by late today given how far east Beryl has been tracking. Gusty winds have become increasingly likely for southeastern Texas... east of San Luis Pass to the Texas/Louisiana border... due to Beryl's eastward shifted forecast track. Beryl and its remnant non-tropical frontal low are likely to produce a swath of heavy rainfall across eastern Texas... northwestern Louisiana... northern Mississippi... eastern Oklahoma... Arkansas... Missouri... Illinois... Indiana... western Kentucky... and western Tennessee through Wednesday. The amount of divergence on the east side of the upper trough supporting ex-Beryl is forecast to be elevated... and its is possible ex-Beryl produces gusty winds across this region through Wednesday. By late in the week any gusty winds and heavy rain produced by ex-Beryl shifts northeast across Michigan... Ohio... and southeastern Ontario. Ex-Beryl and its supporting upper trough are then forecast to become absorbed by a larger frontal system and its upper trough sliding across north Canada.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1200Z Jul 7)... 60 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the western Gulf of Mexico at 25.3N-94.6W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1200Z Jul 8)... 75 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered just inland in between Galveston and Matagorda Bay Texas at 29N-96W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1200Z Jul 9)... Remnant frontal low centered over the southern Oklahoma/Arkansas border at 34.5N-94.5W
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 5 AM EDT****************************
Peak Strength (0600Z Jul 8)... 85 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered just offshore of Matagorda Bay Texas at 28.1N-96.1W
5-Day Position (0600Z Jul 12)... 25 mph maximum sustained remnant frontal low centered over eastern Michigan at 43.5N-83.5W
AREA OF INTEREST #10... The tropical wave of low pressure following behind Tropical Storm Beryl is now in the western Caribbean has remained disorganized due to an overhead inverted upper trough moving westward in tandem with the wave. However because the inverted upper trough is forecast to dissipate by 48 hours from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... this tropical wave may still encounter favorable upper winds once it curves northwest across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the surface ridge weakness induced by what will be ex-Beryl over the US... thus I am keeping the wave as an area of interest and assigning a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation for 48 and 72 hours (I have low odds as model support showing development is low). Another note regarding this wave’s forecast trajectory... it is likely to stay south and west of where Beryl recently tracked as the upper trough that will be re-curving Beryl into and then across the US takes on a SW/NE tilt... such that the back convergent north side of the tilted upper trough builds a surface ridge due north of ex-Beryl that keeps this tropical wave suppressed more south and west.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... this system may later produce heavy rains across northeast Mexico (Tamaulipas and vicinity) by mid-week should the wave indeed become re-invigorated by the forecast more favorable upper winds in the long range.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 8)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Yucatan peninsula near 19.9N-89.8W
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 9)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southwestern Gulf of Mexcio near 22.5N-94W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 10)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of Tamaulipas near 23.5N-97W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1200Z Jul 11)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland over northeastern Mexico near 25N-100W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 AM EDT**************************
Not in the official outlook
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
0000Z (Jul 7) CMC Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Beryl... makes landfall just east of Matagorda Bay Texas at 36 hours... curves northeast into southern Arkansas through 66 hours while transitioning into a remnant frontal low... frontal low continues northeast into southeastern Ontario by 126 hours which then dissipates shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
0000Z (Jul 7) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Beryl... makes landfall just east of Matagorda Bay Texas just after 30 hours... curves northeast into central Arkansas through 66 hours while transitioning into a remnant frontal low... frontal low continues northeast into southeastern Ontario by 114 hours which then dissipates shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
0600Z (Jul 7) GFS Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Beryl... makes landfall just east of Matagorda Bay Texas at 27 hours... curves northeast into central Arkansas through 60 hours while transitioning into a remnant frontal low... frontal low continues northeast across southeast Michigan by 102 hours and then into eastern Ontario by 123 hours... frontal low dissipates shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
0000Z (Jul 7) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For Tropical Storm Beryl... makes landfall between Galveston Bay and Matagorda Bay between 30 and 36 hours while re-intensifying into a hurricane... curves northeast into southern Arkansas through 60 hours while transitioning into a remnant frontal cyclone which then accelerates into the northeastern US through 120 hours... while continuing northeast across Atlantic Canada becomes absorbed by larger frontal low to the north by 150+ hours.
**For area of interest #10... develops into a western Bay of Campeche tropical low near 20N-95.5W at 78 hours which then makes landfall over northern Veracruz at 102 hours... inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter
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