*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...FRIDAY JULY 5 2024 11:55 PM EDT...
See Beryl section below for more information on the tropical storm expected to roll into Texas going forward while potentially re-intensifying into a hurricane. See area of interest #10 section below for an update on the central Caribbean tropical wave of low pressure following behind Beryl. Elsewhere... a surge of dry Saharan air is keeping the Atlantic tropics calm in the wake of these two systems.
HURRICANE BERYL (RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BERYL)... The center of Beryl has continued west-northwest across the northern Yucatan peninsula… with the center as of this writing now entering the southwestern Gulf of Mexico from the northwestern coast of the peninsula. A northward turn across the western Gulf and into eastern Texas is anticipated as deep-layer southerly flow sets up on the east side of the nearby upper vortex and out ahead of a central North America surface frontal system and associated upper trough. Because my previous forecast track has done well… and because the recent NHC track and model consensus has moved toward my previous forecast… the updated one below is essentially the same. Regarding intensity… Beryl did in fact re-strengthen into a category 3 hurricane with 115 mph maximum sustained winds before its landfall with the Yucatan… since then Beryl has gotten too close to the upper vortex to the west such that the vortex has been able to shear the storm. The combination of the shear and land interaction with the Yucatan toppled Beryl’s intensity to 60 mph maximum sustained winds through 11 PM EDT. On infrared satellite… the storm no longer has a core of thunderstorms and has increasingly limited thunderstorm banding on its north side. Plus models are trending with the upper vortex and incoming central North America upper trough teaming up together and getting close enough to Beryl to continue to apply shear to the storm. Therefore due to the markedly lower initial intensity and organization compared to my previous expectation… in combination with the less favorable upper wind outlook… my updated intensity forecast is notably lower than the previous. Albeit some strengthening is shown as the shear levels will still be low enough for Beryl to do some kind of a comeback as the storm track banks northward increasingly parallel to the southerly shear vector. By 96+ hours… Beryl is expected to turn northeast across a swath of the interior eastern US from eastern Texas while transitioning into a remnant frontal low supported by the eastern divergence zone of the incoming central North America upper trough.
Weather conditions across the Yucatan will continue to improve overnight as Beryl pulls away. Interests in the current hurricane watch area from the Texas/Mexico border to San Luis Pass Texas should now be preparing for tropical storm to hurricane force coastal surf and wind to arrive by late Sunday into Monday… also noting northeastern Tamaulipas may see coastal surf from Beryl during that time. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential will also be a concern across eastern Texas… spreading into northwestern Louisiana… eastern Oklahoma… and Arkansas by Tuesday.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (1800Z Jul 5)… 65 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered on the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula at 21.2N-89.2W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 6)… 75 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at 24N-93.8W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 7)… 80 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the western Gulf of Mexico and just east of the Texas/Mexico border at 26N-96W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 8)… 65 mph maximum sustained tropical storm centered inland over southeast Texas and just north of Rockport at 29.2N-96.5W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (1800Z Jul 9)… Remnant frontal low centered over the far eastern Texas/Oklahoma border at 33.8N-95W
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 PM EDT****************************
Peak Strength (1200Z Jul 8)… 90 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered just offshore of the south Texas coast at 27.6N-96.6W
5-Day Position (0000Z Jul 11)… 25 mph maximum sustained remnant frontal low centered over south-central Arkansas at 33.9N-92.5W
AREA OF INTEREST #10... The tropical wave of low pressure following behind Hurricane Beryl is now in the central Caribbean… and has become notably less organized likely due to upper outflow disruption induced by the western Atlantic upper vortex to the north. Models have altogether dropped developing this area of interest… and this wave has been cancelled as an area of interest in the NHC outlook product… as the models are now in unison in showing southeastern US upper ridge pushing a piece of the aforementioned upper vortex southwestward overtop this tropical wave as a suppressing inverted upper trough. However because the inverted upper trough then dissipates after 72 hours from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air… this tropical wave may still encounter favorable upper winds once it curves north across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the surface ridge weakness induced by what will be ex-Beryl over the US… thus I am keeping the wave as an area of interest and assigning a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation for 96 and 120 hours (I have low odds as model support is absent at this time). Another note regarding this wave’s forecast trajectory… for now it likely to stay south and west of where Beryl is currently forecast to go as the upper trough that will be re-curving Beryl into and then across the US takes on a SW/NE tilt… such that the back convergent north side of the tilted upper trough builds a surface ridge over the Great Lakes and north of ex-Beryl that keeps this tropical wave suppressed more south and west.
Good news is the updated upper wind forecast keeps this wave suppressed over the next 72 hours such that the wave does not produce nuisance weather over Beryl recovery efforts across Jamaica… the Cayman Islands… and Yucatan peninsula. This system may later produce heavy rains across northeast Mexico (Tamaulipas and vicinity) by early this upcoming week should the wave indeed become re-invigorated by the forecast more favorable upper winds in the long range.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 6)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (between Honduras and the Cayman Islands near 16.5N-82.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 7)… 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Belize/Mexico border near 18.5N-87.8W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 8)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northeastern Bay of Campeche and offshore of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula coast near 20.5N-91W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 9)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 22.5N-96W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 10)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (coastal Tamaulipas near 24N-97.5W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************
Not in the official outlook
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
0000Z (Jul 5) CMC Model Run...
**For Hurricane Beryl... emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwest corner of the Yucatan at 24 hours as a tropical storm... then makes landfall on Tamaulipas at 78 hours as a gradually re-strengthening tropical storm and then dissipates over northeast Mexico and just west of the Texas/Mexico border by 120+ hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
0000Z (Jul 5) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Hurricane Beryl... emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwest corner of the Yucatan at 24 hours still as a hurricane… makes landfall on far south Texas at 90 hours and then accelerates northeast further inland into the United States while transitioning into a remnant frontal low whose center reaches the northeast corner of Arkansas by 168 hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
1200Z (Jul 5) GFS Model Run...
**For Hurricane Beryl... emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwest corner of the Yucatan at 9 hours as a strong tropical storm… then makes landfall on south Texas coast at 69 hours while potentially regaining minimal hurricane strength… through 129 hours transitions to remnant low along tail end of a front while curving northeast inland toward the Texas/Louisiana border and dissipates shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
0600Z (Jul 5) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For Hurricane Beryl... emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwestern part of the peninsula at 18 hours… makes landfall on the south Texas coast by 72 hours as an intense tropical cyclone... transitions into a remnant frontal cyclone that accelerates north-northeast across the United States with the center of the remnant cyclone reaching the northeast corner of Arkansas by 168 hours
**For area of interest #10... develops into a western Caribbean tropical low at 42 hours which then crosses the northeast Yucatan at 66 hours… becomes absorbed by east side of landfalling Hurricane Beryl by 90 hours
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